Synovus Financial Corp. (NYSE:SNV) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And I don’t think that those three banks that failed constitute an overall bank crisis, but those conversations led to a lot of calls to our bankers and in many situations are outreached to some of our largest depositors. And the conversations we are trying to understand how that impacted us. And from our standpoint, our first goal was to explain that we are very different than the three institutions that failed. We have a very diverse granular deposit base, as you can see in the deck. We’re not homogeneous as it relates to where we were funding the balance sheet. And so having those conversations and most importantly, the long-term relationships that we’ve had with these clients, you can see that not only is our average tenure for our top 100 depositors 20 years, but if you look at the entire book, the dollar weighted average is 18 years.

So we’ve developed long-term relationships built on trust and so when we had those discussions, we were able to keep our deposits on balance sheet. We do have a product that you’ve heard about, the insured cash suite product that we’ve offered prior to this little mini crisis. And we had a whopping total of about 60 clients for less than $500 million move into that product. So I think that serves as a testament that people didn’t feel compelled that they had to move their deposits into that sweep arrangement and that they were very comfortable with Synovus continuing to safeguard their liquidity. But in many ways, they were good, fruitful discussions. And if I had to gauge how much we lost from that, I’d say less than $100 million in deposits.Anthony Elian That’s good color.

And a follow-up to that. I mean, on an overall basis, do you feel like the situation has stabilized and it’s back to business now, right, I mean we’ve seen a handful of regional banks report earnings so far this week. And we haven’t seen the widespread deposit outflows to money center banks or elsewhere that the media or others have portrayed?Kevin Blair Yes, I think the questions around liquidity are abating, and the questions around profitability are becoming front and center. So what we have to do going forward is make sure that as we continue to grow our assets out of the balance sheet is that we’re conscious of not just growing deposit but what — deposits but also what’s the cost of that funding. And so that’s where we’re all focused and I think that’s where you’ll see the industry turn their attention.

And I think you’ll also see more conversations around balance sheet optimization. Are there asset classes there that are not self-funded that now in this environment with a prolonged higher rate interest rate environment that aren’t returning the levels of capital to hurdle rates that you require. So I think it will turn more to profitability and balance sheet optimization and less about liquidity and concerns of losing liquidity. Now I will tell you that I think that there — as you’ve heard from other banks, there’s still a question mark in terms of how much shift will continue to occur from NIB in interest-bearing. We all can try to model that. What we’re excited about is that we continue to be very successful in our treasury and payment solutions area.

Our production was up 40% again in the first quarter versus the first quarter of last year. And I think that’s about the best vehicle we have to be able to preserve and grow non-interest-bearing deposits, and that’s where we’re focused.Anthony Elian Great, thank you. Operator The next question is from Brady Gailey from KBW. Brady, please go ahead. Your line is open. Brady Gailey Hey, thanks. Good morning guys. I wanted to start with fee income. I heard Jamie talk about fees being down on a linked-quarter basis in 2Q. Is that based off the reported fee income or is that adjusting for that $13 million one timer? And in fees, I know you mentioned some changes in your consumer checking fees, so service charges, any way to quantify the impact that, that could have on fee income?Jamie Gregory Yes, Brady.

The decline that we expect in the second quarter is based on the adjusted number. And it’s really a function of a slowing economy and slower loan growth leading to less capital markets fees. The first quarter was a big success for us in capital market fees, a record quarter of $14 million. That’s something that as we head into a likely recession that we don’t expect to be sustainable. Now clearly, it’s a big success because this is an area where we’ve been investing for some period of time in our commercial businesses. And so we love to see that. But there’s just going to be a headwind on growth in that area just due to the economy. And so that’s what’s largely driving the decline. I would put the second quarter NII adjusted in somewhere between 105 and 108 is probably a good range.

And that’s how we are thinking about that. You’re right that as we look forward longer term, changes in our deposit offerings will lead to a headwind on NIR growth. One way to think about that would be approximately $10 million annualized, but that’s something that the timing is still to be determined, and we’ll give more updates on that as we proceed through the year.Brady Gailey Alright, that’s helpful. And then I know a lot has changed from Investor Day last year. But I know during that Investor Day, you laid out some targets for 2024 of a 1.3 to 1.4 [ph] ROA and a 16% to 17% ROTCE. I think The Street has you close to a 1% ROA next year. So any comment or update on how you’re thinking about those kind of profitability goals given today’s backdrop?Kevin Blair I’ll let Jamie talk about kind of the numbers, Brady, but I’ll take you back to that February Investor Day.

And when we put those out there, we said, look, these absolute numbers that we’ll share with you are based on today’s rates and based on what we see over the next three years. And so as of that period, those numbers were not only accurate for our forecast, but they are also accurate and that we felt that they would be top quartile. But what we left with that day was, look, we can’t predict the future. But what we can say is that our focus is going to be continuing to generate improvements in our financial performance that will allow us to be top quartile. If rates are higher, and that means that the returns need to be higher and efficiency ratio may be lower, then so be it. But our ultimate goal there was to just say, relatively speaking, we want to be in the top 25%, and the numbers will play out as they play out in that time frame.

Based on what we’re dealing with now, that may mean that you reset the bar, and you look at some different numbers. But Jamie, how would you think about the actual forecast?Jamie Gregory It’s a very interesting thought exercise because when we laid out our multiyear outlook on February 8th of last year, we had Fed funds approaching 3% three years out. And ironically, if you were to look at the forward curve today, Fed funds is approaching 3% three years out but in a very different way. And so as Kevin mentioned, our performance metrics really are to be top quartile versus peers. And we will pivot as we need given the environment. And so while the — while we may end up back at 3% Fed funds in the medium to longer term, we believe that we have a franchise model here that’s poised to remain and be top quartile long term.

And so we will react to that.Our priorities right now are ensuring that we are positioned to take care of our clients here in the Southeast because we still believe that the opportunity here is unique and big. And so we are positioning our balance sheet for that, positioning our team for that. And we believe that we will win in that regard. But we’re also convicted on making sure that we do it in a prudent manner and defending the balance sheet. And you see that in our capital strategy, you see it in our liquidity strategies, and you see it in our NII sensitivity hedging, just making sure that we protect the income statement in various outlooks. And so that’s our strategy. We’re committed to long-term top quartile, and we will adjust as needed.Brady Gailey Yeah, that makes sense.