Sylvamo Corporation (NYSE:SLVM) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

George Staphos: Okay. Maybe one last question, I’ll turn it over, so I realize you’re not guiding on the fourth quarter though, implicitly you are because of the full year in the third quarter and when we just do the simple algebra, it’s not even analysis you want to put the relatively wide range for what’s implied for EBITDA for fourth quarter. And, yes, it’s going to be driven by volume by pricing and so on, we get that. But what specifically — if you could be somewhat granular here about either end-market regions pricing, would be the key factors in terms of whether you wind up towards the higher end of your guidance range implied both third quarter for sure and then fourth quarter or at the lower end? Again, as we get to the fourth quarter, that range is between $70 million I think and $140 million in terms of EBITDA. Thank you, guys.

John Sims: Yes, George, it’s John. Thanks for that question. I think we gave the revised range of $560 million to $600 million, which is a $40 million range. And then if you look at our range for the third quarter, it’s $20 million range, $130 million to $150 million. You subtract what we earned in the first half, which is $332 million, you really get a range for the fourth quarter, about $20 million, $100 million to $120 million. And what’s driving our revised outlook both in the third quarter and the full year. I think we talked about it, but it’s really demand-driven, mostly in North or in Europe slower — because of the slower economic conditions that are in — that we’re seeing in Europe and that’s also having implications in terms of our views about pricing in the second half of uncoated freesheet in Europe and it also incorporates our views on pulp pricing, which we’ve already seen, but we’re going to see the full impact of that in the second half and then also reflects as we talked about a little bit lower view — demand view in North America.

I will say for the year right now — through the first half of the year, pricing has been relatively stable in North America and Latin America, we do see a seasonal increase in volume, and that reflects also our views on pricings in the export markets.

George Staphos: Okay, thank you so much. I’ll turn it over.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] And we have a question from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Paul Quinn: Yes, thanks very much. Morning, guys. Thanks for the color on the machine shuts that you noticed in North America and Europe. Maybe the question I’ve got is, what kind of volume needs to come out to stabilize pricing in your opinion in both those markets?

Jean-Michel Ribieras: Hi, Paul, Jean-Michel speaking. I would just start by saying in North America, we’ve seen prices stable but we don’t have the calculation on what kind of volume has to be taken off, I don’t have a number to give you. What is true, which is very volatile in Europe, in terms of volume is a non-integrated producer, in Europe, they are much more important than they might be in Latin America or North America. And right now with a very low cost of pulp and very low cost of gas, those producers sometimes are in the market, sometimes are not in the market, are much more competitive. So we see them, which sometimes we don’t. So there is variability here which is very difficult to answer your question because it depends on raw materials.

Paul Quinn: Okay, that’s fair. And then maybe, the second question I had. You’ve stated $125 million return of cash to shareholders. What do you think about that level going forward? And what’s your ability to increase that?