StoneCo Ltd. (STNE): A Bear Case Theory

We came across a bearish thesis on StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) on Quipus Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on STNE. StoneCo Ltd. (STNE)’s share was trading at $13.51 as of 6^th June. STNE’s trailing and forward P/E were 11.42 and 9.68 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

StoneCo Ltd. (STNE), is deeply entrenched in Brazil’s payment processing ecosystem, with a business model centered on receivables discounting rather than the processing layer, which has been heavily commoditized. STNE advances funds to merchants on credit card sales, earning high-yield, low-risk returns that are essentially underwritten by card issuers or networks. This model thrives among small businesses with limited credit access, where urgency often trumps cost.

However, STNE’s growth potential faces headwinds in the market: a saturated market growing only in line with GDP plus inflation, and a capped receivables base tied to one month’s worth of payment volumes. Compounding this is the risk posed by PIX Parcelado, a government-backed initiative allowing installment payments directly via banks, which could disintermediate STNE from the receivables chain.

While STNE has explored traditional credit markets, its previous attempts led to high delinquencies and an eventual retreat. The company lacks the competitive advantage to rival Brazil’s full-service digital and incumbent banks. Despite these challenges, STNE remains highly profitable, and management is focused on balance sheet optimization through share buybacks and modest leverage. Assuming stable pricing and spreads, STNE can deliver around 11% from buybacks at a 9x P/E, and add another 5–7% from underlying economic growth.

While the upside from fixed-multiple returns and efficient capital allocation is compelling, it’s counterbalanced by the real possibility of margin erosion or disintermediation. For investors, the key question is whether these tailwinds are enough to justify the risk of business model disruption in an evolving payments landscape.

Previously, we summarized a bullish thesis on SoFi Technologies, highlighting its rapid digital bank user growth, expanding product engagement, and forward profitability inflection, framing its 2026 earnings potential as a catalyst for valuation rerating. The stock has appreciated by approximately 4% since the recent coverage. Together, these two theses present a tale of fintech divergence: one banking on digital ecosystem scale and future earnings leverage (SoFi), the other navigating a legacy-dependent niche facing structural headwinds (StoneCo)

StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 30 hedge fund portfolios held STNE at the end of the first quarter which was 24 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of STNE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.