Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE:STWD) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we’re probably getting close. Again, you know that if short rates are lower in — as soon as it breaks, as soon as the Fed says they’re done, or it’s more obvious, I think spreads come in. for new buyers. And then I think people’s expectations and I think whether they price that mortgage, do they price it to 10 to 11 to 9 [ph]. That all depends on what they think the future of interest rates will look like. It’s — if you think rates are going up, you’re going to be $0.68. And if you think rates are going down, you’re going to $0.75. So — because it is the first mortgage. So yes, I mean, we are very much paying attention to that. I’ll just point out with all of these nonincome-producing assets, we’re still learning our dividend, right? So is actually shocking.

I think I said this like 3 quarters ago, we didn’t have to make any loans at all to make our dividend. So — and that is a funny thing. It’s counterintuitive but they used to pay us back and we deploy the capital out. Now the duration of the loans is getting stretched a little bit, although we did have almost $1 billion, so $1.2 billion [ph] of repayments in the quarter. So we have to put that money out. That’s why you saw us put out $500-something million [indiscernible] new investments. So we’re not shock. We’re just measured. And if there’s something really channelizing in good and is so good, we will go after it. I mean borrowers are reluctant to borrow from you $500 million over 5, $600 million over 5 [ph]. You can make any construction loan you want in the United States right now at like 550 [ph] over, it’s 11% first money mortgage.

And we tend not to do little deals but there are a lot of little deals getting done at those levels, lots. And we, ourselves, on the equity side, are looking to borrow and we’re getting close to $500 million, $550 million [ph] over partial recourse. It’s a lender’s market. You were one happy little [indiscernible] if you’re a lender today and you have capital.

Jeffrey DiModica: To put it into scale, we did $15 billion in loans in 2021, a little over $10 million in our transitional floating book. We have repo capacity. If we were to do that same volume over the next year, we have retail capacity. Most of our peers, I don’t think do. We have the equity if we want to create it to do that. And I think the market is turning to where we could probably do 75% of that given what we think the landscape will be over the coming months. It will really come down to how certain we are about what money is coming in and continuing to see loans repay and our desire to further leverage the company to take out, create more equity to do it. But we have the capacity in repo. We’ve been here before and I think that we’re probably going to run at 60% to 75% pace in terms of opportunities where we’ve been and we’ll probably pick up our pace where we’ve stopped — we slowed down to about $1.5 billion a year.

I think you’ll see us starting to trend back up.

Stephen Laws: What’s the amount of the unused repo?

Jeffrey DiModica: Three point something of unused loans [indiscernible] feel comfortable. We can look out in the landscape and we really go along by loan and like who do we think can take us out, where they’re likely to take us out. It is an interesting situation because you’ve seen it in the media from Starwood. I mean there are some office buildings that you are just walking away from. Why are you walking away from the building? Many of them are fairly lease but the loan, what’s the cap rate on an office building today? Odyssey will tell you, it’s a 4.4. I will tell you, it’s double that because if you want to get financing to buy an office building today, is in 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%. So nobody is going to buy an office building at a 4.4. Nobody is a big word, very few people.

Maybe there’s a sovereign well somewhere that decides they want a trophy in some city for their brochure and we’ll take a 20 years or but we’re not able to do that. So when you have a building, even if it’s 70% leased and you have to get it 90% leased, you have to put in more capital for the tenant improvements and between the paydown and the debt that’s required by the bank and the capital improvements that you have to put in to stabilize the asset. And in the cycle so far, the bank doesn’t want to give you a 5-year extension for the world to reset itself. You just can’t do it. As a fiduciary, that’s not a great move. So you’ve seen, frankly, Blackstone, Brookfield Starwood all walk away from properties on occasion in markets that we thought were injured.

I do think the office markets are better than people think. And it’s funny Vornado reported yesterday, you can go find their earnings reporting. They’re running at 90% lease book in a really tough market. And the office markets are seeing absorption. You just have to have the right building. And it’s funny because in this market with record profits of companies, they’re not really pressuring you on rents. It’s not a rent, they’re not saying, I’ll take it at $70 and you want $90. They’ll take it. It’s a question of them understanding their own expansion needs and. But in Miami, in New York, even in L.A., the right buildings are leased and they’re full and they’re getting the same rents and concessions they had before. As you know, it’s just like the mall business.