STAAR Surgical Company (STAA): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on STAAR Surgical Company on Yet Another Value Blog’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on STAA. STAAR Surgical Company’s share was trading at $19.15 as of January 28th. STAA’s trailing and forward P/E were 95.73 and 50.51 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

STAAR Surgical Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells implantable lenses for the eye and accessory delivery systems to deliver the lenses into the eye. STAA presents a uniquely bullish special-situations setup where multiple event-driven forces collide to create an asymmetric opportunity.

The company agreed to be acquired by Alcon for $28 per share, a ~60% premium, yet the deal immediately ignited shareholder resistance. Investors—led by Broadwood, a nearly 30% holder—argue that STAA is being sold at a cyclical low after a sharp, but temporary, collapse in China sales pushed the stock into the mid-teens.

With signs of recovery already emerging, shareholders believe the board accepted a bottom-of-the-cycle valuation despite Alcon having previously offered $58 per share when fundamentals were stronger. Their opposition has been powerful enough to force two delays of the shareholder vote and pressure Alcon and STAA into amending the merger to include a no-fee go-shop, a rare concession that underscores how close the deal is to collapsing.

This convergence of merger arbitrage, activism, a contested vote, a potential bidding war, and a possible proxy fight creates an unusually rich catalyst stack. Broadwood is actively pursuing a special meeting to remove directors and potentially terminate the deal altogether, aiming to install a board aligned with intrinsic-value expectations rather than sale-at-any-price urgency. Meanwhile, Alcon’s behavior reveals a telling contradiction: they want STAA badly enough to attack activists publicly and accept a go-shop, yet refuse to raise their bid, signaling they believe $28 is full value.

By resisting the sale, shareholders are effectively making a high-conviction bet that Alcon is underestimating STAA’s long-term potential. If China continues to rebound and operational momentum normalizes, rejecting the deal could unlock substantial upside beyond the current merger price, offering a compelling bullish skew for investors willing to embrace complexity-driven catalysts.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Alcon Inc. (ALC) by Kontra Investment Xchange in December 2024, which highlighted the company’s leadership in global eyecare and its advancing product pipeline. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 9.48% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t play out near term. The thesis still stands as fundamentals remain intact. Yet Another Value Blog shares a similar view but emphasizes STAA’s event-driven catalysts.

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Disclosure: None.