S&T Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:STBA) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

As those turn, starting here in fourth quarter, their reset rates will be a lot less than they were prior. So we’ll see less of a degradation in the margin from the CD book repricing because it will have less distance to travel to the market.

Daniel Tamayo: Okay. That’s great. And then, I guess, just finally, again, on the margin. I think last quarter, you talked about expecting 5 basis points to 10 basis points of compression quarter. We got 10 this quarter. You’re saying now about 10 for the rest of the year, which would take us down close to 4%. And which kind of jives with what you said last quarter as well about where the Fed funds rate is and where the NIM could end up. But just curious, assuming we don’t get rate cuts, if where you see the margin kind of settling at? Is it around that 4% range still, or you think it drifts down into the 3s or kind of more materially?

Mark Kochvar: Yes. I think it’s a lot more difficult to project. I mean, I think there’s probably a little bit more compression to go after fourth quarter, but we should see a significant slowing there because some of these other factors like the CD book repricing begins to stabilize, we’ll get a more steady stream of ARM and security resets. And hopefully, that consumer demand for migrating from DDA and savings rate slows down considerably. So probably a little bit below four, but hopefully not meaningful below that. But I think we’ll know more as time progresses here in Q3 and before we can get to 2024 guidance.

Daniel Tamayo: Terrific. Thanks for all that color. I know it’s a difficult dive into a difficult question. So I appreciate it.

Chris McComish: No. Thanks for your questions.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Michael Perito from KBW. Please go ahead.

Chris McComish: Hey, Michael.

Michael Perito: Hey, good afternoon guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start on the credit side. I mean, I know one of these credits was kind of a carryover from last quarter, and it really doesn’t sound like just based on the broad detail that there’s really kind of any concerns that would permeate to the rest of the portfolio from these two specific C&I credits. But I guess just generally, just listening to you guys kind of described like some of the catalysts to what brought us to this point. I mean, are we — are you guys seeing just more like you mentioned something about losing two larger customers for the one. And then there was another comment talking about deposits about how you’re seeing consumers and small businesses kind of run their cash lower.

I mean, are we just getting to a point in the credit cycle here where the borrower is just getting kind of weaker as every quarter that passes, or you think that that’s kind of reading too much into the events that you’re seeing with these two particular credits over the last couple of quarters?

Dave Antolik: Yes, Mike, I think there are indications within the book that it’s the latter of your thoughts. So we’re monitoring particularly the C&I book for anything that has higher leverage, because these companies obviously are more suspect to negative changes in their operating environments and in the rate environment. We feel really good about our CRE book. We disclosed quite a bit of information last quarter around the office book, which hasn’t changed significantly. So I think — things like declines in utilization rates like we saw this quarter would indicate that there’s not a liquidity crunch at the customer level. And I think ultimately, we’re adequately reserved as presented in the ACL analysis that we presented.