Sportradar Group AG (SRAD): A Bear Case Theory 

We came across a bearish thesis on Sportradar Group AG on The Bear Cave’s Substack by Edwin Dorsey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SRAD. Sportradar Group AG’s share was trading at $22 as of November 28th. SRAD’s trailing and forward P/E were 65.39 and 40.16 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Sportradar Group (NASDAQ: SRAD) positions itself as a global leader in sports technology, serving as a critical intermediary between sports leagues that seek to monetize official data and online sportsbooks that rely on real-time information and pricing tools. Backed by major U.S. leagues including the NBA, NHL, and MLB, the company has built a reputation as a core infrastructure provider for the rapidly expanding regulated sports betting industry. Its offerings range from data distribution to sophisticated odds-making software, supported by a 4,500-person workforce across Europe and Latin America.

Sportradar also emphasizes the value it provides to regulated operators, showcasing case studies such as Apostemos, which used its AI-driven CRM tools to curb player churn and nurture high-value users, and betPARX, where personalization powered by Sportradar increased gambler session duration by 273%. However, The Bear Cave argues that investors may be overestimating Sportradar’s moat and underestimating rising competitive threats and structural risks. A central concern is the company’s exposure to grey-market gambling operators despite marketing itself as a guardian of sports integrity.

Its April 2025 investor presentation highlighted relationships with 800 betting operators, including Stake and 188Bet—platforms associated with jurisdictions like Curaçao and Anjouan, where regulatory oversight is weak or ambiguous. Sportradar’s own filings acknowledge that a significant share of revenue originates from markets lacking clear legality, where regulation is inconsistent and enforcement varies widely.

These dynamics raise questions about the true durability and quality of Sportradar’s business model at a time when prediction markets and alternative data sources are becoming more competitive, creating a more nuanced and potentially riskier investment profile than headline narratives suggest.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on DraftKings Inc. by LongTermValue Research in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong market position, rapid EPS growth, and attractive entry point. The company’s stock price has depreciated by 33.71% since our coverage. This is because the thesis hasn’t fully played out. The thesis still stands as legalization and profitability continue improving. Edwin Dorsey shares a contrarian view but emphasizes Sportradar’s data-driven role in the same industry.

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Disclosure: None.