Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Smurfit Westrock Plc on The Forward Ledger’s Substack by Rosen Nedev. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SW. Smurfit Westrock Plc’s share was trading at $34.45 as of December 2nd. SW’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.42 and 11.53  respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Smurfit Westrock (NYSE: SW), with a $21 billion market cap and 6.4x EV/EBITDA, is a newly formed global leader in fiber-based packaging following the 2024 merger between Smurfit Kappa and WestRock. The combination created a vertically integrated giant spanning over 40 countries, 500 converting operations, and 67 mills, supplying major consumer packaged goods brands through a closed-loop model that runs from sustainable forestry and recycling (14 million tons of recovered fiber annually) to large-scale paper production (23 million tons per year) and packaging conversion.

Smurfit Kappa, Europe’s largest producer, brought operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation, while WestRock, formerly the second-largest U.S. player, contributed scale and geographic reach but had been inefficiently managed. The merger allows Smurfit Westrock to apply its proven efficiency and integration model to a previously underperforming U.S. platform, with expected synergies driving improved EBITDA margins and stronger free cash flow. The combined entity benefits from a diversified procurement base, a strong balance sheet, and manageable leverage, with debt maturities extending to 2047.

Industry consolidation in the U.S. corrugated and sustainable packaging sectors also supports long-term profitability, as Smurfit Westrock competes alongside peers like International Paper, Amcor, Ball Corporation, and Crown Holdings. Management’s incentives are aligned with ROCE and EPS growth targets, and around half of bonuses are deferred into shares, reinforcing a focus on shareholder value.

With volume growth resuming and secular demand shifting toward recyclable, fiber-based packaging (expected CAGR 6–10%), margin expansion from 16% to 17% and continued integration efficiencies could drive roughly 50% upside potential. Sustained dividend growth and buybacks further enhance the total-return outlook.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) by Serhio MaxDividends in May 2025, which highlighted its operational efficiency and dividend growth. The stock has depreciated by 6.38% since our coverage as demand normalized. The thesis still stands given AVY’s focus on digital labeling and capital discipline. Rosen Nedev shares a similar view but emphasizes synergy realization in Smurfit Westrock Plc.

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Disclosure: None.