Simmons First National Corporation (NASDAQ:SFNC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 2 of 11

Brady Gailey: All right. And then finally for me, the net interest margin was stable if not down a few basis points linked quarter. How are you thinking about the trajectory of the net interest margin into 2023?

Jay Brogdon: So, Brady, Jay again here, let me jump in with some initial remarks there as well. I think the thing to point to here for Q4, we had some deposit leakage, I’ll call it late in the quarter. We’ve had what I felt like was a good third quarter on the deposit side and candidly early in the fourth quarter as well. You may recall in Q3, NIVs actually grew. We gave some of that back in the fourth quarter, kind of fell more in-line with the industry in the fourth quarter. You couple that with some strong loan growth continued in the fourth quarter. And we increased the reliance on wholesale funding. I think that’s, sort of cash flow timing as much as anything. I sort of think that the thesis for us from a margin perspective, from an NII perspective remains fully intact candidly.

So, when I think about, sort of go forward expectation for margin, some of that wholesale funding reliance in fact came late in the fourth quarter. That will be a bit of a headwind early in 2023 for us from a margin perspective, but as we continue to expand our loan to deposit ratio, sort of reinvestment of investment and other cash flows back in the loans, which we think we’ve got plenty of loan demand in the foreseeable future to do. Some of that moderation in loan growth that Matt spoke to that we expect, that’ll help sort of reduce any reliance on wholesale funding going forward. And so, I think that all is, kind of sort of tailwinds for us in 2023 from, sort of a built-in margin perspective as time moves on. I’m going to mention one other item.

We call this out in our slides, but just one thing that is important as we move later into 2023, remind you all that we have about $1 billion of our bond portfolio fixed rate that is swapped. And that was on a two-year forward contract and that will come into play in September of this year, sort of late September. And so that basically goes from fixed to variable late in the year and current rates would certainly be a boost to margin at that point as well.

Brady Gailey: Okay. All right. Great. Thanks for the color, guys.

Operator: The next question is from David Feaster of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

David Feaster: Hi. Good morning, everybody. I was hoping that maybe we could touch on the deposits that we were just talking about, maybe talk about some of the competitive dynamics in some of drivers of the core outflows. I mean, how much do you think is surge deposits versus seasonal dynamics versus clients just using excess cash to pay down higher cost debt? And are you seeing any differences from a geographic or regional perspective where competition is more intense? And do you think most of the surge deposits, if you will, are out at this point?

Jay Brogdon: So, let me again jump in David on that and Bob or Matt may also or others may have some comments here, but I do think that there is likely some seasonal impact for us in Q4. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. And again, we saw some of the outflows pretty late in the quarter, which would, kind of sync up with that outcome or that expectation. When I think about €“ and I’ve spoken about this in prior quarterly calls, when I think about excess funds, that surge deposits, funds that we’re laying around whether they’re consumer or commercial or otherwise, I think most of that moved out of the bank earlier in the year last year. What it feels to me like when I’m looking at our data, sort of daily, weekly, monthly right now, it feels more like just an overall competitive dynamic.

Page 2 of 11