Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) on Iceman Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FOUR. Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR)’s share was trading at $94.40 as of 6^th June. FOUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 32.33 and 16.42 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Shift4’s acquisition of Global Blue marks a pivotal moment in its international expansion strategy, with a $2.5 billion deal that adds a dominant, high-margin, and defensible business to its portfolio. Global Blue is the global leader in VAT tax refunds, with over 70% market share, generating 76% of its FY25 revenue from its Tax-Free Shopping segment. The company’s digitized VAT refund process, bolstered by investments in eligibility detection, secure card capture, and refund automation, enhances both shopper experience and merchant efficiency, leading to a success ratio of 56% on tax refund forms, up materially from pre-pandemic levels.

Additional growth comes from its payments segment, contributing 18% of revenue through high-margin dynamic currency conversion and multi-currency payment solutions, and its post-purchase solutions (6% of revenue), which deepen customer stickiness and leverage data for targeted merchant services.

Global Blue’s competitive edge stems from multi-year merchant contracts, individualized VAT split economics, proprietary data on international shoppers, and a robust tech stack, making it difficult for new entrants to displace. It operates in the resilient and expanding luxury travel market, with volumes rebounding post-COVID and potential upside from VAT policy shifts in markets like Saudi Arabia and potentially the UK.

Shift4 sees $80 million in run-rate revenue synergies and $70 million in EBITDA contribution by 2027, with further upside from cost reductions and international payment processing expansion across 75+ countries. Though the multiple appears high, the strategic fit, margin profile, and growth runway justify the valuation. With steady leadership, a long growth runway, and capital discipline, this acquisition could prove transformational for Shift4.

Previously, we highlighted a bullish thesis from Next 100 Baggers that framed Shift4 as a vertically integrated payments platform quietly compounding value through M&A, operating leverage, and strong execution. It emphasized founder alignment post-leadership transition, expanding international footprint, and visible EBITDA synergies as near-term drivers of re-rating. The stock has appreciated by approximately 14% since the coverage. 100 Baggers focused on Shift4’s structural advantage and bundling flywheel. Iceman Capital theorizes the transformative potential of a single deal in elevating margins, global scale, and competitive moats.

Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 17 hedge fund portfolios held FOUR at the end of the first quarter which was 14 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of FOUR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.