Shell plc (NYSE:SHEL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We will continue to look at opportunities to be able to, of course, engage with the government when it comes into power. For now, all the indications are support for the continued investment that we are making in the Netherlands, which is substantial, by the way, predominantly in the low carbon space, as we also unwind our presence there on the Groningen field.

Sinead Gorman: And with respect to Nature Energy, it’s quite early to tell at the moment. So, we’re into the first year of it, not even finished the first year so far. What we’re seeing is a lot of learnings going back and forth because what you may remember is when we actually bought Nature Energy, we said we would actually fold some of our renewable natural gas activities within Europe into it as well. So, there’s a great opportunity for us to be able to see the information flow in both directions and actually learn from the team there as well for the and then to see the trading opportunities that we have as well. So early days, information flowing, making sure we actually get in place both the standards that we want to have from both sides and making sure that we have the ability to be able to move the molecules where we want. So, looking forward to provide some updates into the future as well.

Operator: Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

Lydia Rainforth: I’ve got to say two questions. On the first one, there is obviously a lot of free cash flow within the business, and it is quite remarkable how much you’re generating. And I agree with that, your shares are undervalued. Did you ever think about giving an annual number for the buyback? And clearly, I could take 40% of my forecast and get to a number. But just from your side, why not have the confidence to give an annual number? And this is vaguely linked. But on the acquisition side, we obviously have seen a lot of acquisitions across the globe. Is there any point where you think that you were missing out on this? And then secondly, on the chemical side, on the Pennsylvania cracker. Where are you now in terms of certification of some of those products?

And it does appear that it’s going to be difficult to meet that cost of capital hurdle. When you are thinking about that process, would you do it again, essentially? Or how would you not make that sort of investment and one way it looks like it’s not going to make the return? Thank you.

Wael Sawan: Thank you very much, Lydia. I think inherently three questions. I will take the last two. I will start with those and then come back to you, Sinead, on the free cash flow generation. I think, let me start with Monaca then go to the acquisition. On Monaca, you recall last update I provided was that the first two polyethylene trains, two or three, were running well. They are running at or above capacity and continue to do so, which is pleasing to see. I also updated you at the time that, there was equipment issues on the third train. I’m pleased to report that, that piece of equipment now has been installed, a compressor that we needed to put into place is in the process of being started up and will ramp up through the course of the coming weeks.

That allows us, hopefully, to stabilize the plant from thereon. Our focus right now is on volume, on just pushing the volume through the plant. And why is that? That’s because the differentials at the moment between the gas price and the product price are significant. Even before we get, very forensic around the potential grades that we have, that we can actually crack out there, the real focus is on just getting flow through and that’s what the team is focused on for the coming months. And then over time, of course, we will continue to optimize value through the opportunities that we have technically to do so. On your question around acquisition, I think the worst thing you can ever do is get FOMO when others are acquiring. We set out a very clear strategy middle of last year.

And if anything, we stand today in a position, where we are very pleased with not just the progress we are making, but the momentum that we are building towards that strategy, and we are absolutely convinced that, that strategy, if we can continue to deliver on the pace we are delivering, will unlock significantly more value than any other acquisition. Of course, you see that playing through. You see it through the stability of our cash flow generation. I mean, our Gulf of Mexico business, this last quarter produced at the record high, the highest in over two decades. Our Queensland Gas Company asset base is producing at a record high, the highest that since it started up 10 years ago. The quality of the CFFO is strong. Yes, there’s more to do to get Prelude and Monaca up and running.

At the same time, Sinead has already alluded to the growth in CFFO coming from the 200,000 barrels per day and new projects that will be coming through. Cost is coming down. CapEx discipline is showing. I think you see all the credentials to be able to really focus on unlocking that value from the first sprint, and we are only two quarters into a 10 quarter sprint. And so, I do think it’s a unique opportunity for us to continue to use that surplus cash to be able to lean in and do more buybacks, which is exactly what you see us do, and we will consistently do that inline with what we have said we will do.

Sinead Gorman: Sure. I think that’s the perfect answer to the first question as well. I think, my sort of brief response would be, when we set a target, you can see that we are looking at performance not promises. We will meet it and hopefully beat it. You can see that preference is to not set a huge number of additional targets along the way. Just look at our track record. If you look back over the last, however many quarters six quarters, whatever it may be. It’s a very tight range in terms of the buybacks. So, hopefully, it gives you complete predictability in terms of what’s going forward, Lydia, as well. But, fundamentally, I’ll always look at the performance of the company in the quarter and looking forward as well. That’s why you see a 3.5 billion share buyback at this point.

Wael Sawan: And maybe a fine point there, Lydia, as well. You’d asked me would we do, Pen Chem again. I think, what we will continue to do is to be very clear where every single dollar of capital is going to be prioritized. Does it go into a buyback or does it go into other projects? We have said we’re going to keep our capital employed in chemicals flat through the decade. So, of course, that’s a key consideration. And we will make sure that we do less of what we would call the mega projects. That is very much the philosophy that we are adopting. Small and replicable is beautiful, and we see it in the context of a Vito to a Whale to Sparta. And so more and more of our capital expenditure is going to be in areas where we feel we can really get our hands around those opportunities. And only in exceptional cases where we truly see value add, will we go for the bigger projects.

Operator: Our next caller is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.