SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Luka Mucic: Yeah. Thanks for the question. That’s a detailed one that, I guess goes to me. So first of all, when you take a look at where we ended with the €4.35 billion and then you build up, there are a couple of elements here. First, on the negative front, yes you’re right. We have a restructuring that will result also in cash outflows of roughly €300 million. So you need to subtract that, so to say, back. On the sale of receivables, actually, SAP has a long history of engaging in customer financing. In 2022, the €800 million was actually a step-up over the roughly €500 million that we had in the year before. But you need to understand, the prior year was in the long-term average, actually quite a low figure. So the long-term average is more around €700 million.

So we, yes, would expect that also in the future in 2023 and in the years beyond, we will have customer financing-related cash inflows at the same levels as what we have seen in 2022. So that is actually more or less a wash in terms of how you build the bridge for 2023 and beyond. When you then think about the progression, well, first of all, of course we expect that we will have a significantly higher profitability in 2023 compared to 2022 that will result also in a higher cash flow performance. You pointed to the fact that, we had, in 2022, significant prepaid expenses from some strategic transactions that we did with hyperscalers that were kind of a working capital headwind for us, but made sense for us in the long run, because we were able to capitalize on better conditions as a part of that.

So that is something that we don’t expect to the same extent to see in 2023 for the further years. Then you need to keep in mind that, we have started in 2022 to move our share-based compensation plans to equity-settled plans. And under the old plans, we had actually a one-year vesting period and then essentially payouts on a rolling basis. That is now changing. And the majority of our awards that now start to vest actually already after six months will then be paid out in equity. And so, we will see starting this year and then with further increases of tailwinds in the following years as the old programs, the large cash settled anniversary and therefore, don’t affect the cash flow anymore a reduction, to the point that we would expect in 2025 to end up only with roughly a bit more than €500 million of cash-settled cash flow headwind, so to say, in the results.

And so it’s basically mainly the combination the increase in profitability, as well as the positive impact from the move to equity-settled programs that will define the trajectory. The receivables financing should be neutral for the performance in the future years as we would expect to finance similar volumes as we have done in the past. On the working capital impacts that were particularly pronounced in 2022, I would expect a slight moderation of those and then it’s at the end of the day, the growing profitability in the business. Obviously, we don’t intend to rest with the growth that we have guided for in 2023, but actually see a strong prospect to further increase the growth rates on the profitability side in 2024 and beyond. I hope that’s helpful, at least at the level that we can cover in such a call.

Amit Harchandani: Thank you very much Luka. Appreciate the detail.

Anthony Coletta: Thank you, Amit. We’ll take the next question please.

Operator: The next question is from the line of James Goodman from Barclays. Please go ahead.

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