Saia, Inc. (NASDAQ:SAIA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Doug Col: You know, we go back and look at some examples. So, I mean, you know, I guess, it just — from a very high level, it’s going to depend on really what where there’s economy goes and what volumes look like. But I mean, we’ve got examples in the past improving margins in the down year. I mean, if we go back to couple of years like 2014 into €˜15, things were down in €˜15, kind of, energy rolled over, our shipments and revenue were both down about 4% that year. Fuel expense was down a lot, so fuel surcharge revenue would have been down. But that year we actually improved our margins by 70 bps. And we look at the following year and it was still pretty sluggish environment. Fuel was down again; I think our revenue was flattish o down tonnage and that year the OR went backwards a little bit.

So there’s a lot of moving pieces out there, but I think if shipments are going to be down like they are kind of in January, if we had to run that through the full-year, we really got to hang on to this rate increases at this GRI level. And then I think we could hold on to margins. I think if volumes are going to run negative all year in this low to mid-single-digit range, I think it would be hard to improve margins. But again, like Fritz mentioned in his opening comments, we’ve got 18 terminal opened in the past couple of years. I mean, they were certainly — although we’re pleased with how they’re doing and as they mature, they do better every quarter, but those were a drag essentially on the overall OR we reported. So again, while you’re building out a network like this, which is something we’re going to have to manage through.

But I think be reasonable, think ORs within 100 basis points plus or minus. So what we just exited would be reasonable.

Scott Group: Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time.

Operator: Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

Chris Wetherbee: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Maybe picking up on the cost side, so kind of wanted to get a sense of what you think your cost inflation is running, and then maybe a little bit about how you think you’re going to manage headcount assuming that we still see a little bit of sluggishness in tons at least for the first part of the year?

Doug Col: Well, I think Fritz covered it pretty well. But I mean, I can give you an idea of how we manage it. I mean, if I think of just sequentially Q3 into Q4, our shipments per day were down almost 75 right, and it was accelerating there at the end as I step through the months, but shipments per day down about 7%. So you go to work on the things you can control out in the network and our dock hours per day for example Q3 into Q4 were down 10%. Our city hours Q3 into Q4 as we’re managing down costs to adjust to these declining volumes, our city hours per day were down about 5% in Q3 to Q4. So those are the levers we’ll keep to work, unlike Fritz said, I think we’re in a position given where we exited December that our capacity in terms of labor and all feels pretty good for where we sit today and we brought a lot of it that we could in-house to make sure we keep our drivers as busy as we can and keep that valuable resource, because our outlook is still a little bit cloudy there’s people starting to talk themselves in the idea that we’re definitely going to have a soft landing now.

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