Sable Offshore (SOC): Greenhaven Road Capital’s High-Expected-Value with Uncertain Timing Investment

Greenhaven Road Capital, an investment management company, released its second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the second quarter, the fund returned approximately +14% net of fees and expenses, bringing the YTD returns to under +1%. YTD, the Russell 2000 has returned -1.8%. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025.

In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Greenhaven Road Capital highlighted stocks such as Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC). Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) is a US-based independent oil and gas company. The one-month return of Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) was -4.57%, and its shares gained 89.72% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On August 18, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) stock closed at $28.80 per share, with a market capitalization of $2.866 billion.

Greenhaven Road Capital stated the following regarding Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter:

“One example of what I believe is a high expected value with uncertain timing investment is Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC), which I first wrote about in the Q3 2024 letter (link). I think there is a > 90% chance of a +150% outcome in the next year which implies an expected value of +135% (assuming a complete loss in the 10% scenario which I think is extremely conservative). Of course, there is a very wide range of potential outcomes including the loss of capital.

Sable is reopening an old oilfield in federal waters off the coast of California that had been operated by Exxon for decades but was shut down after oil leaked from a pipeline on land. We know the oil is in the ground. Environmentalists have used the court system to delay the reopening of the pipeline. When the pipeline opens, I believe the stock should re-rate over time as the company reports production and revenue.

I think the environmentalists are running out of Hail Mary’s and litigation should be resolved before the end of the year, but the timing is clearly uncertain. It could be August, or it could be 2026. For me it is high expected value, uncertain timing.”

In another article, we covered Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) and shared the list of hot oil stocks to buy. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.