Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Sable Offshore Corp. on Stock Analysis Compilation’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SOC. Sable Offshore Corp.’s share was trading at $28.80 as of August 18^th. SOC’s trailing P/E was 47.20 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Sable Offshore (SOC) represents a high expected value investment with uncertain timing, offering what is believed to be a >90% probability of a +150% upside within the next year. This suggests an implied expected value of +135%, even when conservatively assuming a complete loss in the 10% downside scenario. The company is focused on reopening an old oilfield located in federal waters off the coast of California, a site previously operated by Exxon for decades before operations were halted due to an onshore pipeline leak.

The existence of oil reserves is not in question, and the investment thesis hinges on the resumption of production once the pipeline is brought back online. The primary obstacle has been persistent litigation from environmental groups, which has delayed the process through legal challenges. However, recent developments suggest that opposition is running out of viable avenues, and court proceedings are expected to conclude in the near term. If litigation is resolved and the pipeline is restarted, SOC’s stock should re-rate as the company begins to generate production and revenue, driving material value creation.

While timing remains uncertain—it could be as soon as August or delayed into 2026—the asymmetry of risk and reward remains highly favorable. Investors face the possibility of capital loss, but the combination of visible reserves, strategic positioning, and a clear operational pathway create a compelling setup. The result is a rare case of a high-probability, high-reward investment with multiple catalysts, where timing is the only significant variable.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) by Kooky_Lime1793 in January 2025, which highlighted the discounted acquisition of the Santa Ynez Unit from ExxonMobil and its vast production potential with nearly 20x upside. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately 10.28% since our coverage. This is because litigation delays clouded restart timelines. The thesis still stands as reserves remain intact. Stock Analysis Compilation shares a similar view but emphasizes uncertain timing.

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Disclosure: None.