Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE:R) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Moving to dedicated on Page 13. Operating revenue increased 1%, reflecting the recovery of inflationary costs. We expected slower contract sales activity in Dedicated, consistent with the softer freight environment. As we discussed previously, we expect the 2023 segment revenue growth to finish below our high single-digit target range. Dedicated EBT remains strong and generally in line with the prior year. EBT benefited from inflationary rate increases and EBT continues to benefit from favorable driver conditions as the number of open positions and trying to fill for our professional drivers improves. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 9.4% in the quarter and in line with the segment’s high single-digit target. Turning to Slide 14.

2023 lease capital spending of $2.6 billion increased from prior year, reflecting higher lease replacement and growth activity as well as the return to normalized timing for OEM tractive deliveries. In 2024, we’re forecasting lease spending to decline to $2.5 billion, reflecting lower replacement activity, partially offset by higher growth. We expect the ending lease fleet to be up approximately 13,000 units in 2024, reflecting the Cardinal acquisition as well as organic growth. At the time of the acquisition, Ryder’s fleet increased incrementally by approximately 2,400 power vehicles and by more than 6,500 trailers. We expect to realize synergies with maintenance cost and fleet utilization by combining the Cardinal and Ryder fleets. 2023 rental capital spending of $438 million was below prior year’s plan.

In 2024, we’re forecasting rental spending to increase to $600 million, reflecting modest rental growth. Our ending rental fleet is expected to increase by 8% during 2024 and our average rental fleet is expected to be down by 5%. For 2024, the rental fleet is expected to remain below peak levels. In rental, we continue to increase capital spending on trucks versus tractors as trucks have benefited from relatively stable demand and pricing trends. At year-end 2023, trucks represented 60% of our rental fleet, up from 49% in 2018. Our full year 2024 capital expenditures forecast of approximately $3.3 billion is in line with prior year as higher growth is offset by lower replacement capital. We expect approximately $550 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles in 2024, down approximately $200 million from prior year, reflecting lower pricing as well as fewer vehicles sold.

Higher sales volumes in 2023 reflect higher lease replacement activity and rental de-fleeting. Full year 2024 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.8 billion. Turning to Slide 15. Our 2024 full year forecast for free cash flow is expected to be between negative $275 million and $375 million and our forecast for operating cash flow is $2.4 billion. As shown, operating cash flow remained strong, driven by growth in our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses which comprise over 85% of Ryder’s operating revenue. Our free cash flow profile has changed significantly since the implementation of our balanced growth strategy. Since 2020, lower targeted lease growth as well as COVID effects and OEM delays resulted in lower capital spending and higher free cash flow.

Proceeds from the exit of the UK FMS business also benefited free cash flow in 2022. The summary on the right side of the slide illustrates the strong free cash flow generated by the business prior to investing in fleet growth. In 2024, although free cash flow is expected to be negative $325 million at the midpoint of our range, free cash flow prior to investing in growth capital is expected to be positive $350 million. As a reminder, we expect free cash flow to be positive in most years and positive over the cycle. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to shareholders. Our top priority is to continue to invest in organic growth. Strategic acquisitions have been a key contributor to accelerated growth in SCS and have helped transform our supply chain business in terms of expanding capabilities as well as rebalancing our vertical mix.

Balance sheet leverage of 232% at year-end 2023 was below our 250% to 300% target and continues to provide ample capacity to fund organic growth and strategic investments as well as to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. With that, I’ll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our 2024 outlook.

Robert Sanchez: Slide 16 highlights key aspects of our 2024 outlook. In terms of market assumptions, we expect macroeconomic growth to be muted in 2024. We expect market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental to continue to weaken in the first half of 2024, with a gradual improvement in the second half. We are confident that secular trends continue to favor transportation and logistics outsourcing and that our operational expertise and strategic investments will continue to enable us to deliver increasing value to customers, and shareholders. We’re assuming that US Class 8 tractor production declines approximately 25% in 2024, and that OEM delivery delays for trucks will continue. We expect trough market conditions in used vehicle sales in rental in 2024.

Gains from the sale of used vehicles are expected to be below normalized levels of approximately $75 million in 2024 reflecting lower market pricing and fewer vehicles sold. We expect rental utilization to be at the low end of our mid- to high 70s target range on a 5% smaller average fleet. Our enhanced asset management playbook has enabled us to outperform prior cycles, and we expect to continue to leverage and benefit from these actions going forward. In terms of our financial forecast for 2024, operating revenue is expected to grow approximately 13% above the total company’s high single-digit target, reflecting revenue growth in all segments, including the impact from recent acquisitions. Comparable EPS is expected to remain strong between $11.50 and $12.50 in 2024, reflecting contractual growth, partially offset by trough conditions in used vehicle sales and rental.

ROE is expected to be between 15% and 16.5% in line with our return expectations during trough market conditions for used vehicle sales and rental. Free cash flow is expected to be between negative $275 million and $375 million, down from prior year, primarily due to lower used vehicle sales proceeds. Overall, we expect to deliver solid returns in 2024 amid trough market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental reflecting execution of our balanced growth strategy. Slide 17 provides the outlook highlights for each of our segments. In FMS, operating revenue growth is expected to be at the segment’s mid-single-digit target due to organic fleet growth and the intersegment revenue from Cardinal vehicles operating in DTS, partially offset by lower rental demand.

FMS EBT as a percent of operating revenue is expected to be in the segment’s low double-digit target range, reflecting fleet growth, benefits from multiyear lease pricing and maintenance cost savings initiatives, partially offset by trough conditions in used vehicle sales and rental. SCS operating revenue growth is expected to be in the segment’s low double-digit target range driven by secular trends, the IFS and Cardinal acquisitions and our initiatives. SCS EBT percent is expected to be at the segment’s high single-digit target range due to growth and pricing actions. In DTS, operating revenue growth is expected to be above its high single-digit target, reflecting the Cardinal acquisition. EBT as a percent of operating revenue is expected to be below the segment’s high single-digit target range in 2024, reflecting acquisition integration costs and higher interest expense, partially offset by initiatives.

We are confident that the strategic acquisitions we’ve made to accelerate profitable growth in Supply Chain and Dedicated and to expand our capabilities will create value for our customers and shareholders. The team is focused on integrating these acquisitions and realizing their expected benefits and synergies. We continue to manage discretionary spending by leveraging our zero-based budgeting process and are not planning incremental spending on strategic investments in 2024. We expect to continue share repurchase activity. Overall, we’re excited about the opportunities ahead of us and expect all segments to benefit from profitable contractual growth. Slide 18 provides a chart outlining the changes from 2023 to reach the high end of our 2024 comparable EPS forecast.

EPS headwinds from our transactional businesses reflect expected trough market conditions. Lower gains are expected to reduce EPS by $2.25. We expect used vehicle pricing to be below prior year and expect sequential declines through the first half of the year with some gradual improvement in the second half. Used vehicle sales volumes are expected to decrease, reflecting lower replacement activity versus the prior year. Rental is expected to reduce EPS by $0.70, primarily reflecting lower demand on a smaller average fleet. Our 2024 forecast EPS does not include any outsized earnings from gains or rental. FMS contractual and other is expected to contribute $1 of EPS, primarily reflecting growth and higher lease pricing. Profitable growth in SCS and Dedicated is expected to benefit EPS by $1.50.

This increase reflects ongoing secular trends as well as our initiatives to accelerate growth and increase returns in these businesses. The benefit of a reduced share count from share repurchase activity is expected to offset a higher tax rate and employee compensation costs. This brings the high end of our comparable EPS forecast to $12.50 with a range of $11.50 to $12.50 for the year. The transformative changes we’ve made to the business model are delivering strong results. Profitable growth in our contractual businesses is largely offsetting the negative impact of trough conditions on the transactional parts of our business. Turning to Page 19. We’re forecasting comparable EPS of $11.50 to $12.50 versus $12.95 in 2023. We’re also providing first quarter comparable EPS forecast of $1.55 to $1.80 versus the prior year of $2.81.

Historically, the first quarter is the lowest earnings quarter and represents the most challenging year-over-year comparison in 2024, given where we are in the cycle. Weaker expected market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental during the first half of 2024 put additional pressure on year-over-year earnings comparisons in the earlier part of the year. In addition, the size of our average rental fleet in the first quarter is expected to be 12% lower than the prior year, in line with lower demand. Turning to Slide 20. In addition to managing through the down cycle, we’re also focused on positioning the business to benefit from the cycle upturn. Although the majority of our revenue is supported by long-term contracts that generate relatively stable and predictable operating cash flows over the cycle, each business segment has opportunities to benefit from the cycle upturn.