Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Rubrik, Inc. on Wolf of Harcourt Street’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RBRK. Rubrik, Inc.’s share was trading at $88.77 as of August 22^nd. RBRK’s trailing P/E were 25.58 according to Yahoo Finance.

Rubrik, founded in 2014 and public since April 2024, is a SaaS-based cyber resilience company built around its Rubrik Security Cloud platform, enabling secure backup, recovery, and protection against ransomware and operational disruptions. Recognized as a Gartner Magic Quadrant leader for six years, it has evolved beyond traditional backup to provide a zero-trust, machine learning–driven model that safeguards enterprise data across hybrid and multicloud environments. Its offerings span backup, ransomware recovery, immutable data storage, automation, and compliance, positioning it as both a digital vault and an “undo button” for cyberattacks.

Rubrik’s moat is still developing but shows traction: switching costs rise with platform integration, network effects strengthen through partner ecosystems and threat intelligence, and enterprises realize significant TCO savings, especially in complex environments. Scale remains a work in progress as incumbents and hyperscalers maintain strong positions, but Rubrik’s growth trajectory signals long-term potential. Financially, Rubrik reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $278 million, up 49% YoY, with 95% subscription-based sales. Large enterprise adoption is accelerating, with 2,391 customers contributing over $100K in ARR, up 29% YoY, while NRR above 120% reflects world-class retention and expansion.

Despite a -33% operating margin, gross margins are robust at 78%, and the company has turned free cash flow positive at $33 million, aided by efficiency gains. With a $16 billion market cap and shares at $83.97, valuation reflects high growth expectations, but its positioning in a $50 billion TAM, coupled with founder-led leadership, Microsoft’s backing, and rising enterprise demand for resilience, creates a compelling long-term investment case.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) by ElectSamsepi0l in December 2024, which highlighted rapid ARR growth, strong partnerships, and leadership moves that strengthened its market position. The company’s stock has appreciated about 65% since our coverage as execution boosted confidence. The thesis still stands. Wolf of Harcourt Street shares a similar view but emphasizes financial traction and moat development.

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Disclosure: None.