Robert Half Inc. (RHI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Robert Half Inc. on DeepValue Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RHI. Robert Half Inc.’s share was trading at $36.84 as of August 27^th. RHI’s trailing and forward P/E were 21.05 and 22.42 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Robert Half (RHI) is a 75-year-old professional services and staffing company, offering contract talent solutions, permanent placement, and business consulting through its Protiviti segment. The company primarily serves the U.S., though it operates in 32 countries, focusing on high-skilled, high-impact roles that are less economically sensitive and command premium fees. Contract talent solutions drive 56% of revenue, permanent placement 8%, and Protiviti consulting 35%. Its decades of placement data provide a natural edge for AI-driven matching tools, supporting faster, more precise placements and higher margins.

The company has experienced a sharp decline of over 70% from 2022 highs, presenting a potential investment opportunity. Robert Half has historically delivered exceptional returns on capital, with ROIC and ROCE averaging around 39–40% since 2000, alongside a rock-solid balance sheet featuring zero debt and $380 million in cash. Shareholders benefit from a 6.4% dividend and 2.5% annual buybacks, yielding roughly 9% while the business rebounds. Revenues tend to lag temporary help trends by 2–3 quarters, highlighting strong data correlation and predictable recovery patterns.

Key risks include a potential recession, competitive pressure in a fragmented staffing market, management alignment, and execution of AI initiatives. However, the company appears well-positioned to navigate these challenges due to its reputation, client relationships, and operational efficiency. A conservative valuation based on 2028 projected revenue of $6.43 billion, FCF of $514 million, and a 17x multiple suggests a potential share price of $94.70, representing a 163% upside from the current $36 stock price, or a 33% CAGR over 3.4 years. Robert Half’s combination of undervaluation, high returns on capital, and strong fundamentals makes it a compelling opportunity for long-term investors.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Kelly Services, Inc. (KELYA) by Unemployed Value Degen and Value Don’t Lie in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s transformation toward higher-margin contract employment, strong growth in science, engineering, and education segments, and potential for a rerating. The stock has appreciated by 6.70% since coverage. DeepValue Capital shares a similar focus but emphasizes Robert Half’s high returns, AI-driven data advantages, and global presence.

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Disclosure: None.