REV Group, Inc. (NYSE:REVG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Mig Dobre: Thank you. Good morning, and I hope you all managed to get over the cold that you are even I’m in the same boat as you are. So sticking with the discussion on Recreation, sorry to be the dead horse here, but in the press release you talked about backlog normalization and I’m sort of curious as to how you think about that dynamic in fiscal €˜23, what is normalized backlog look like in Recreation, how would you expect backlog to exit the year?

Mark Skonieczny: Yes, so it’s sort of more in the six to seven-month window, that’s sort of what we traditionally have seen, as you know like we’re over two-year backlog, which was not normalized, so we’re talking about getting back to the levels that we expect, so we’ll have less booking, but we’ll be aiding through the backlog, and as you know, in this business, we do have new model year. So some items like I highlighted in my discussion, if orders are replaced in €˜22, that’ll be converted to €˜23 model, so there’s always the ever-changing backlog dynamic there, but we are seeing reorder rates on the €˜23 and some of the things that Rod highlighted with the awards that we won at the open house, so we are very happy with those. So it’s more of a six to seven month, sort of, window that we’re talking about here on those versus the two years down to more of a one year that we’re experiencing now.

Mig Dobre: Understood. Because, where I’m going with this, I’m trying to get a sense for where underlying market demand really is for your product. I recognize that you have backlog, right, but if we’re kind of thinking about the order run rate and how that should inform us into €˜24, I mean, if your backlog is coming down to the extent that you are talking about in fiscal €˜23, should investors be thinking that revenues are going to be down in €˜24 or do you think €˜24 can actually be a growth year for this business?

Mark Skonieczny: Yes, well, I don’t think I have given €˜24 guidance, but we know we’ve elevated backlog. So it’s really getting that business back to a normalized level, which we’re very comfortable in the performance. And as we’ve been talking about this for the last 3 years to 2.5 years is we’re really managing the business for margin expansion and doing the work that we’ve done here. So even at a lower revenue, especially as we look at our performance issue in our Class A business, even at lower revenues, we’ve been able to produce margin expansion. So it’s more about holding the margins here in a challenging market as we enter here, so.

Mig Dobre: Okay. And then maybe my final question, surrounding your €˜23 guidance and I appreciate it all the color on the moving pieces here. The 35% to 65% split on EBITDA, first half versus second half, I mean, if I look at fiscal €˜22, it was about 40%, 60%, so arguably speaking, you’re a little bit slower in €˜23 relative to €˜22 and the way you start the year. So I guess I’m wondering what gives you the comfort or the visibility that you’ll be able to achieve that ramp in the back half because it sounds like the timing issue in Recreation is really between first and second quarter, not first half or second half, so any help there would be great?

Mark Skonieczny: Yes, so it’s more around the units like we talked about around throughput and our ability to get these older units out, as I highlighted for Jamie, so it’s really a margin discussion and we’ll have the revenue, but these are at lower margin units like I highlighted on the commercial, which we’ve talked about in the last couple earnings calls, as well as on the F&E side as we convert, especially in our Holden facility could be — convert the older KME, as well as for our units there, those will have no pricing related to the €˜21 and €˜22 increases that we have put out there. So it’s really a margin discussion now, again getting the throughput on those units, and we do have truck-by-truck visibility, so we know what we’re producing and what the margins are in those trucks, so we feel pretty comfortable that that is the shift that will happen.

Obviously, if there was a supply chain challenge that extended beyond €˜23 — beyond Q3 or Q2 I should say, into Q3, that would shift a little bit, but we feel comfortable about our ability to ramp as well as through obviously qualifier making sure we get the chassis that we need to produce, but we do have ramps built into our plan as we continue to see improvements in supply chain as well as in the chassis supply.

Mig Dobre: Okay. So it’s really driven by Fire rather than Recreation?

Mark Skonieczny: Yes, Fire and Commercial, really Fire and Commercial. Recreation, yes, to your point, first half, second half, you wouldn’t see that sort of jump there. It’s really just the Q1 comment, actually in Q1, with this recall not being able to ship, but we’re expecting to ship those in Q2 as you noted, so it’s not a first half, second half challenge, that’s more of a normalized revenue recreation. It’s more in the F&E and Commercial segments as you can see a disproportionate first half, second half based on the items we highlighted.

Mig Dobre: All right, understood. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Mark Skonieczny: All right.