Rayonier Inc. (NYSE:RYN) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

It was down 39% versus the prior year comp that benefited from exceptionally favorable supply-demand dynamics for pulpwood in the region. The Pacific Northwest log market has faced headwinds in the form of both soft domestic lumber markets and limited demand for log exports to start the year. However, we are optimistic that demand has bottomed and is poised to improve over the course of 2024 as we have seen mill inventories normalize in recent weeks. Moving to New Zealand. Page 10 shows results and key operating metrics for our New Zealand Timber segment. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of $11 million was $5 million above the prior year quarter. The increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year period was primarily driven by higher carbon credit sales and favorable foreign exchange impacts, partially offset by lower net stumpage realizations.

Average delivered export sawtimber prices of $109 per ton declined 4% compared to the prior year quarter as demand continues to be constrained by ongoing challenges in China’s property sector. While improving seasonally following the Lunar New Year, offtake from Chinese ports has remained relatively subdued at approximately 70,000 cubic meters per day. However, softwood log inventories at Chinese ports are currently 9% below year ago levels at roughly 3.9 million cubic meters. On response to the ongoing weakness in construction activity, we have seen many exporters reduce log shipments into China. In turn, we anticipate log inventories are poised to decline over the course of the second quarter, which we expect will lead to more favorable pricing conditions in the second half of the year.

Shifting to the New Zealand domestic market. First quarter average delivered sawlog prices fell 5% from the prior year period or 3% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. The decline in pricing reflects continued challenges facing the local construction market amid a higher interest rate environment as well as reduced competition from the export market. First quarter non-timber income in New Zealand of $4 million increased $3 million relative to the prior year period. The year-over-year increase reflects higher carbon credit sales in the current year period as we temporarily suspended our sales program in early 2023 amid significant market volatility. We anticipate that we will remain active in the New Zealand carbon market over the course of 2024 as pricing remains healthy from a historical standpoint, albeit down in recent weeks as compared to beginning of the year.

Lastly, in our Trading segment, we registered a breakeven result in the first quarter. As a reminder, our trading activities typically generate low margins and are primarily designed to provide additional economies of scale to our key timber export business. I’ll now turn it back over to April to cover our real estate results.

April Tice: Thanks, Doug. As detailed on Page 11, the contribution from our Real Estate segment during the first quarter was relatively light, consistent with our expectations entering the year. Real estate revenue totaled $16 million, including roughly 1,900 acres sold at an average price of $5,800 per acre. Real Estate segment adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $5 million. Drilling down. Sales in the improved development category totaled $2 million and were driven by two transactions in our Heartwood development project, south of Savannah, Georgia. The Heartwood sales consisted of a 3.1 acre multi-tenant retail parcel for $1 million or $321,000 per acre as well as 18 residential lots for $800,000, reflecting an average base price of approximately $46,000 per lot.

While the first quarter was relatively light in terms of closing activity, we continue to see favorable momentum at both of our development projects. In February, the St. Joseph Candler Healthcare system opened the initial phase of its health and wellness campus at Heartwood. This was an important milestone. And as we move forward, we expect that Heartwood’s diverse mix of residential, commercial and industrial end users will serve to further catalyze demand. In Wildlight, homebuilder interest in the next phase of development has continued to increase. We expect initial sales over the next year within the 15,000-acre area that we received entitlement improvement for in November. Overall, we continue to see a tremendous runway for both our Wildlight and Heartwood development projects going forward.

Turning to the rural category. First quarter sales totaled $9 million, consisting of approximately 1,500 acres at an average price of roughly $5,800 per acre. Key transactions during the quarter included the sale of 409 acres in Texas for $2.3 million or over $5,500 per acre, as well as the sale of two properties totaling 364 acres in South Carolina for a total of $1.4 million or nearly $3,800 per acre. Overall, demand from prospective buyers on rural lands remains healthy, and we expect a larger contribution from these sales as we move through the balance of the year. While interest in smaller tracks has moderated somewhat amid a current interest rate environment, demand for the larger tracks remains strong. In addition, we have recently seen growing interest among conservation and impact-oriented buyers looking to place capital.

Lastly, during the quarter, we also closed on a 430-acre nonstrategic timberland sale in Louisiana for roughly $600,000 or $1,400 per acre. Now moving on to the outlook for the balance of 2024. Based on our first quarter results and our expectations for the remainder of the year, we are on track to achieve our prior full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $290 million to $325 million. As a reminder, our guidance excludes the potential impact of any additional asset sales as part of our previously announced $1 billion disposition target. With respect to our individual segments, in our Southern Timber segment, we expect to achieve our full year volume guidance. But following strong harvest activity to the start of the year, we anticipate lower quarterly volumes for the remainder of the year.

Further, we anticipate that pine stumpage realizations will decrease modestly over the remainder of the year due to a less favorable geographic mix and a relatively higher proportion of thinning volume. Lastly, we remain encouraged by the momentum in our land-based solutions business, and we continue to expect higher non-timber income for the full year 2024 relative to the full year 2023. In our Pacific Northwest Timber segment, we remain on track to achieve our full year volume guidance as we expect harvest volumes to increase during the second half of the year. We believe that market conditions have stabilized and anticipate that end market demand will improve modestly over the course of the year given the continued favorable dynamics in the single-family construction activity.

We further expect weighted average delivered log prices will increase modestly into the second half of the year as log inventories at mills continue to normalize. In our New Zealand Timber segment, we are on track to achieve our full year volume guidance as we anticipate higher quarterly harvest volumes for the remainder of the year. We expect weighted average log prices to decline modestly in the near term before rebounding in the second half of the year as the inventory-to-demand ratio normalizes. Following the recent pullback in carbon credit pricing, we now anticipate the full year contribution from carbon credit sales to be comparable with the prior year. In our Real Estate segment, we remain on track to achieve our prior adjusted EBITDA guidance following a relatively light first quarter as our full year pipeline of transactions remains strong.