Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. (NYSE:RYAM) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Dmitry Silversteyn: Got it, thank you, Mickey. And then just to follow up on your comment about the market conditions in China that are impacting your high-yield pulp business. Can you provide a little bit more detail on what’s going on there in China and how long these market conditions are expected to last?

Mickey Walsh: Well, the conditions continue, as we discussed last quarter. There’s still an excess supply of high-yield pulp or mechanical pulp in China due to new capacities that came on. And I would expect that that’s probably going to continue through most of the year. There’s a lot of excess supply in that market. The impact it’s having with respect to global pricing on high-yield pulp is though limited to China. We’re not really seeing a lot of that bleed out to other regions in the world. So pricing in the Indian subcontinent area as well as Europe continues to be strong and we expect will continue to improve as we go through the year. And in response to what we’re seeing in China, we are obviously then repositioning our sales and our supply into those markets that are more attractive. And then we believe that as a result of those stronger dynamics, we’ll be able to improve our average pricing as the year progresses.

Dmitry Silversteyn: Okay, so I mean, if I look at your slide for the volume and price in high-yield pulp, it does look like it’s come off the bottom a little bit, but obviously not to the level that we saw in 2022. Is the expectation that the sort of the normal pricing is somewhere more in line, let’s say, with the first half of 2023? I mean, how should we think about kind of sustainable pricing for this business?

Mickey Walsh: Yes, that’s, and again, that’s a good question what would be a normalized price? Normally, over a cycle, our high-yield pulp business generates positive EBITDA and positive cash flow. Obviously we’re coming off the trough and starting to see improvements. And as we get into later part of this year, we’ll start to enjoy positive EBITDA and positive cash flow. I really can’t right now tell you where the normalized pricing would be. It’s likely going to be higher than we are today. We’ll get all the way back to the first quarter of 2023. I think right now it’s probably, it would be a guess on my part. I really don’t want to speculate on that.

De Lyle Bloomquist: And Dmitry, remember there’s a lag effect on our high-yield business, giving our order file and our logistics supply chain.

Dmitry Silversteyn: Got you, so yes, I understand that. Okay, thank you.

De Lyle Bloomquist: All right, thank you, Dimitry.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Sandy Burns with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Sandy Burns: Hi, good morning and good start to the year. Maybe just to clarify one item about the EBITDA guidance, the 30 million one-time cash charges for the Temiscaming closure suspension, is that added back to get to the 180 to 200 or are you including those as valid expenses for 2024?

De Lyle Bloomquist: No, we’re adding that back to get to the adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Sandy Burns: Okay. So that is an add back. And those are all cash costs, just to confirm.

De Lyle Bloomquist: There are no, they’re not all cash costs, but a good majority of it is. And just the other point to make is that the $30 million, it will be spread out over the course of multiple years. It’s not all going happen in 2024.

Sandy Burns: Okay, good. Okay. And maybe just to follow-up on the prior question about the duty sale, and appreciate, you don’t want to get into too much detail, but maybe just to clarify, was that a sale of all of the duty refunds you were expecting or was it just a portion of those?

De Lyle Bloomquist: It was the sale of all of our duty refund rights. So not just the amount that was in receivables. So the full $111 million.

Sandy Burns: All right, great, thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Roger Spitz: Thanks very much. Good morning. Hi, what is the EBITDA impact of the Q2-2024 Jessup turnaround, if any?

De Lyle Bloomquist: Well, that’s a good question, Roger, and you got me stumped on that one. I would say in the neighborhood of $10 million, something like that. But again, that’s going to be a guess, just thinking about historical impacts, but that’s given the size of the plant, given the obviously the impact it has, it’s going to be material.

Roger Spitz: Are you doing all lines or just one particular line?

De Lyle Bloomquist: Yes, we brought the whole plant down for about three weeks.

Roger Spitz: Okay.

Marcus Moeltner: And Roger, it’s important to note we’re through that shutdown, right?

De Lyle Bloomquist: Yes, the important point is that the plant’s back up and running now. And we brought it back up a little earlier than planned. So it was a very successful outage.

Roger Spitz: Got it. Perfect. So regarding to Temiscaming, you’re going to idle on your HPC plant, obviously continuing to run the paperboard and High-Yield Pulp plant. And the slide talks about what you save in EBITDA. But my question is this, if we look at the paperboard and High-Yield Pulp, you both have EBITDA associated with it, but presumably there will be some additional EBITDA pressure or costs from running those plants, but not having the benefit of the HPC plant to absorb the other fixed costs of running the whole complex. So how should we think about like LTM EBITDA of those two segments? If HPC wasn’t running, is there like, do they have to absorb another X million dollars of fixed costs from not running HPC?

De Lyle Bloomquist: You’re getting into the, some details relative and with respect to some of the negotiations and discussions we’re having with potential suitors of the paperboard business. So I don’t really want to get into the details on that. But I will say that any of the stranded costs that right now that we’ve forecasting for the business is in that $15 million to $20 million of benefit that we’ve got in the EBITDA for the business, for the business going forward. So we’ve got it included in the estimates we’ve given you.