QuidelOrtho Corporation (QDEL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on QuidelOrtho Corporation on Valueinvestorsclub.com by Novana. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on QDEL. QuidelOrtho Corporation’s share was trading at $27.39 as of July 25^th. QDEL’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.16 and 11.22, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

QuidelOrtho (“Quidel”) represents a structurally growing diagnostics franchise trading at a deep discount to intrinsic value, weighed down by transitory headwinds that are now receding. Pandemic-related distortions in COVID-19 revenue, the sub-optimal integration of Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, leadership shortcomings, Savanna delays, and fears of tariff escalation collectively eroded margins and investor confidence.

Under new CEO Brian Blaser, formerly of Abbott, operational discipline is being restored, integration costs cut, and the Savanna program terminated, removing a material EBITDA drag. The acquisition of Ortho brought a highly recurring laboratory diagnostics business—anchored by long-term reagent contracts and a 2,000-analyzer installed base—that now drives mid-to-high single-digit organic growth, augmented by inflation-linked pricing and share gains. Quidel’s transfusion medicine and point-of-care segments provide additional recurring revenue, while the acquisition of LEX Diagnostics positions molecular diagnostics for profitable growth.

Recent results confirm the inflection: in Q1-25, laboratories and point-of-care grew organically 7% and 8% respectively, and margins expanded 450bps YoY, with guidance reiterated despite UK tariff headwinds. Structural margin repair is underway, with management targeting 200bps of annual EBITDA expansion, reaching 26–27% by 2028, and free cash flow conversion exceeding 50% as integration costs roll off and leverage declines from >4x to ~3x by 2026.

The stock, down 30% on unfounded Chinese tariff fears, trades at ~13–14% 2026E FCF yield. Applying a conservative 10x 2028E EBITDA implies a tripling of the share price, with additional upside from capital returns as leverage falls. Upcoming catalysts—margin expansion, deleveraging, and a Q3-25 investor day—set up an asymmetric risk/reward profile.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Medtronic plc (MDT) by Investing Intel in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong Q4 FY2025 results, broad-based growth, and plans to spin off its diabetes unit to unlock value. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately 15% since our coverage, as the thesis played out. Novana shares a similar view but emphasizes QuidelOrtho’s structural growth and operational turnaround.

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Disclosure: None.