Public Storage (NYSE:PSA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Our next question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Sakwa: Just one quick follow-up, Tom. It sounds like your contractual rent for move-ins will still be negative in the first half of the year. I think you said it was running down about 11% in the first quarter. I think you said you expect it to get to about a breakeven in the third quarter. I guess, what is the overall expectation for the year? I mean I presume fourth quarter might be up fourth quarter over fourth quarter, but that still leaves you kind of negative for the year? Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

Tom Boyle: Yes. That’s the right way to think about it, Steve. The midpoint case, I think move-in rents are down 3% on average through the year.

Operator: Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Goldsmith: Just one quick follow-up for me. I think from our conversations with investors, I think they were expecting same-store revenue growth at kind of like the low end of your same-store revenue guidance. So — what do you need to see or believe about the consumer or the length of stay to get ECRIs to drive kind of that same-store revenue growth at that low end of the guidance, all else being equal? And I know it’s kind of like there’s a lot of moving parts there. But just what would need to get the ECRI to the low end of the store revenue guidance?

Joe Russell: Well, I would…

Tom Boyle: Subject to ECRIs, right? I mean we gave you a lot of different metrics at the low end that gets you there. I gave you the perspective that demand — new customer demand in that lower end case doesn’t stabilize until later in the year and you don’t cross year-over-year moving rents until the fourth quarter, really towards the end of the year. ECRIs, we’re assuming in that case that there’s a little bit more price sensitivity than what we’re experiencing right now. To directly answer your question, move out churn, we’re anticipating really in is centered around in the midpoint case, the same levels of churn we saw last year, which is very consistent with what we saw in 2019. Churn levels are up a little bit in that low-end case, but not materially. So that’s what gets you at the low end.

Joe Russell: And then again, Michael, as we’ve been speaking to, we’re seeing, again, continued validation of, I would say, healthy economy, very consumer-oriented economy where the pressure points of a year ago or beyond relative to whether it was inflation, interest rates, employment, et cetera, are at a better place today with more clarity today than they were certainly at the beginning of 2023. That continues to play through relative to our own month-by-month operating metrics that we’re seeing going even into 2024. So something would have to shift pretty materially away from that to give us a different low-end view as well.

Tom Boyle: Yes. And we’ll obviously update you on that as we go through the year. I’d maybe reiterate something I said in my prepared remarks that I would focus more on move-in rents. That has been the big area of variability over the last year or two on same-store revenue performance. Try to give the investment community some guideposts in terms of how we think about that going through the year. But we operate a month-to-month lease business where we’re going to be adding about 6% to 8% of our tenant base every month. And the rate with which we add those customers is going to be very impactful on where we end up through this range. And we’ll update you on what we’re seeing on operating trends as we move through the year.

Operator: We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I’d now like to turn the call back over to Ryan Burke for closing comments.

Ryan Burke: Thanks, Rob, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We’ll talk to you soon. Take care.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

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