Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We also wanted to do our own analysis of the positioning of the brand and come up with a fulsome and thoughtful program. And that’s what our intent is to implement in 2024. But the punch line is, these two brands are the — are the margin drivers long-term for the business and we need them to be healthy. And we think that they deserve a greater level of investment than we’ve been putting into it these first five months.

Kenneth Goldman: Thank you for that. And then a quick follow-up. If you said this, I must have missed it, but it was only last quarter when you talked about a more normalized Foodservice EBITDA of about 90 prior to the new plant coming online. I think you raised it to 95 today. I wasn’t quite sure why that was done. And again I may have — I may just not have heard it. But if you could elaborate a little bit on why the increase to 95 on what you’re seeing in the business that gives you that confidence. That would be helpful.

Jeff Zadoks: Yeah, to be perfectly blunt, there is a lot of noise in the numbers. So we were hesitant to raise the bar on a run rate basis until we got more clarity as to how much was being driven by the improvements in the mix of the business versus these temporary price adders and other market dynamics. And through the fourth quarter we think we have a much clear visibility as to what that run-rate is. And that gives us confidence in the — in the comment we made today to say that it’s $95 million. There still clearly a lot of one-time and transitory effects in this quarter. But through the analysis that we’ve done over this fiscal year, we got a lot more confidence that the — the watermark has been raised for that business on a go-forward basis.

Kenneth Goldman: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

David Palmer: Thanks. Wishing you a quick and full recovery, Rob, and thanks for your comments. Jeff and Matt just sort of a different angle on Andrew’s question on Post Consumer Brands. That the EBITDA for that segment, the margin approached 20% in that quarter, typically that’s a little — seasonally it’s maybe even lower than average for what a given year would be. And I know obviously, changes are happening with the reinvestment that you’ll be making in marketing. Maybe — some in-house production shifts, and so I’m wondering, is that a good starting point for margin for this next year, how should we think about a margin standpoint for Post Consumer Brands in ’24?

Jeff Zadoks: So grocery, so the cereal and peanut butter business, we think normalized is low 20s, low to mid 20s margin. The Pet Food business, as Andrew alluded to, we inherited at 7%, but we think that long-term, it can be certainly a teens or above. In ’24, we’re not going to get fully to Bright, but you know we would expect to be able to be around the low teens in that business.

David Palmer: No, I can do the math there, and that business is maybe a fifth of the business, maybe approaching 20 might make sense as next year, is that how you’re thinking about this next year that or maybe what you’re considering with your guidance, yeah.

Jeff Zadoks: Yes, you’re in the ballpark.

David Palmer: And then on the volume side, organic volume this next year, you talked about reinvesting and promotion to stabilize the core business outside of Pet, but you’re also talking about trade-down and fewer trips out there. I mean, how should you — how should — how are you thinking about the prospects for stabilizing volume in ’24 in Post Consumer brands?

Jeff Zadoks: You’re talking about cereal now?

David Palmer: Cereal please, yes.

Jeff Zadoks: So, our view of the category as we said in our remarks is that, it’s going to be challenged — perhaps maybe I should say even more challenged than normal until we lapped the SNAP benefit decline that occurred in March of 2023. But then we expect to return to the pre-pandemic levels of flat to down a couple of percent. As we plan for ’24 for our business, we use those category dynamics as a baseline, we believe that we can perform, somewhat better than that. But we’re not counting on volume growth in our plan for next year. We would expect that there is going to be some volume declines in fact until we get to full bright on stabilization.

David Palmer: Thank you.

Jeff Zadoks: That’s not quite as bad as the category. But still slightly down.

David Palmer: Thanks again.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Smith with Stifel. Your line is now open.

Matthew Smith: Hi. Good morning. I’ll start by extending my well wishes to Rob. And Jeff and Matt, if I could ask a follow-up question on Foodservice. So, volumes were down this quarter, was that reflective of comparing against some elevated volume in the prior year due to the avian influenza dynamic or are you seeing lower traffic in outlets that use your value-added eggs? And then as a follow-up to that, given the stickiness of the mix-shift to higher value added products, are you seeing competition pick up in that area of the business. Are you seeing more competitive bidding processes or other egg producers putting in capital to compete in this higher mix category of value-added eggs?