Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jason English: Cool. And last question on the cereal side, I think a lot of us are looking at U.S. centric food and we see it abating cost curve and we see residual price seen and we’re expecting decent margin recovery. Are those expectations founded in cereal? Or should we be a bit concerned about maybe the rising cost to compete, which I think you sort of alluded to when you mentioned you’re seeing more advertising coming in?

Rob Vitale: I don’t necessarily think that incremental advertising coming from category leaders is a bad thing for our position in the category. I think we need that kind of support in order to maintain interest in the overall category and we will compete and — with different forms in terms of packaging and on in-store marketing. So I don’t necessarily view that in any way as a negative. We’re far more sensitive to promotional intensity than advertising intensity. And I think that’s within the normal range.

Jason English: Makes sense. Thank you.

Rob Vitale: Thanks, Jason.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Rob Vitale: Hi, Michael.

Michael Lavery: Thank you. Thank you. Good morning.

Rob Vitale: Good morning.

Michael Lavery: Just a helpful color on fiscal €˜24 even though it’s obviously super early, but just a quick clarification on that. Where you said even with some of the one kind of lifts in this year, you would think it’d be flat to up next year. Would that be sort of like for like excluding the shake capacity or with that driving a little bit of a lift?

Rob Vitale: We’re not to that level of granularity that I can say within $15 million to $20 million particularly when you factor in that it’s not going to be for the full-year 2024, whether that will matter. What we were trying to communicate is that to the extent that there is some uncertainty around sustainability of the overall EBITDA level. We don’t share that concern as we sit here today. But whether that incorporates the — in your effect of the incremental capacity, that’s the level of precision we haven’t yet achieved.

Michael Lavery: No, fair enough. But yes, good color still. When you talk about the pressure on Weetabix margins, obviously, we see that in this quarter. Is the magnitude likely to moderate at all? Or how do we just think about, kind of, the run rate over the rest of the year. Is 1Q indicative of what to expect or might that get a little bit better?

Rob Vitale: At the EBITDA level, I think it’s indicative of where we will be at the gross margin level that may fluctuate a bit. With inventory levels, but I think we can maintain that EBITDA margin plus or minus. Longer-term, we think it will be restored, but we face a choppy here there.

Michael Lavery: Okay. No, that’s helpful. And just one last quick one, you mentioned some pricing that hasn’t hit the P&L yet. I may have missed it if this was clear, but is that — which segment or segments would that apply to?

Rob Vitale: PCB and refrigerated retail.

Michael Lavery: And can you give any sense of the magnitude?

Rob Vitale: No, I’d rather not get into that level of pricing discussion in this form.

Michael Lavery: Okay. Thanks so much.

Rob Vitale: Thank you.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

Rob Vitale: Hey, David.