Pony AI Inc. (PONY): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Pony AI Inc. on Bullseye Picks’s Substack by Bullseye Investing. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PONY. Pony AI Inc.’s share was trading at $14.43 as of January 29th.

Pony AI Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility business in the People’s Republic of China, the United States, and internationally. PONY represents a leveraged, long-duration bet on the eventual mass adoption of autonomous vehicles, particularly across China and Southeast Asia, regions where urban density, regulatory openness to automation, and ride-hailing economics create a structurally attractive backdrop for AV deployment. The investment case is explicitly high-risk and high-reward, requiring a multi-year holding period as commercialization timelines remain uncertain and capital intensity stays elevated.

At a market capitalization of approximately $6.83 billion, Pony trades at a steep EV-to-revenue multiple of roughly 70x, reflecting both the market’s expectation of substantial future growth and the binary nature of execution around autonomy adoption. Strategic partnerships play a central role in underpinning this long-term optionality, with collaborations involving Uber and Samsung enhancing Pony’s ecosystem credibility, technological depth, and potential pathways to scaled commercialization.

A critical inflection point in the thesis is Pony’s recent progress on the cost curve, as the company has entered a phase where manufacturing costs for its autonomous vehicle platforms are approximately 70% lower than earlier generations. This reduction materially improves unit economics, narrows the gap between pilot programs and viable commercial fleets, and increases flexibility in pricing and deployment strategies.

Building on this cost advantage, Pony plans to expand its fleet to roughly 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, signaling a transition from experimental scale toward early-stage operational density. While valuation remains demanding and success is far from guaranteed, the combination of declining hardware costs, strategic global partners, and exposure to large, underpenetrated mobility markets positions Pony AI as a concentrated option on autonomy reaching commercial relevance in Asia, where even partial success could drive disproportionate equity upside relative to today’s expectations.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in April 2025, which highlighted long-term optionality in autonomy, AI, robotics, and energy despite near-term operational challenges. TSLA’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 78.55% since our coverage, as investors are betting on AI, full self-driving, and robotaxi potential outweighing near term weakness in car sales. Bullseye Investing shares a similar thesis but emphasizes a pure-play autonomy opportunity through Pony AI.

Pony AI Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held PONY at the end of the third quarter which was 19 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of PONY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PONY and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.