Polls Are Tightening: Trump Will Deliver Stunning Upset (Update 2)

11. Georgia

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points

Actual result: Trump won by 5.1 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 0.5 points (A week ago fivethirtyeight was predicting a Biden victory, so polls are tightening).

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8+ points

Trump: 74 – Biden:77

12. Hawaii

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points

Actual result: Trump lost by 32.2 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.4 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 41.6 points

Trump: 74 – Biden:81

13. Idaho

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points

Actual result: Trump won by 31.8 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 23.1 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 33.8 points

Trump: 78 – Biden:81

14. Illinois

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points

Actual result: Trump lost by 17.1 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.4 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 22.7 points

Trump: 78 – Biden:101

15. Indiana

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points

Actual result: Trump won by 19.2 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.4 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.9 points

Trump: 89 – Biden:101