On August 10, Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) held its second-quarter earnings call, and the numbers pointed toward a company closing the gap between its long-promised turnaround and reality. Revenue climbed to $178 million, gross margin crept to nearly break-even, and management raised its full-year growth guidance for the second time this year. CEO Jose Luis Crespo framed the quarter as proof the business is executing, and the underlying figures back that up.
Bull Case: Growth Engine Finally Firing
Revenue rose about 9% sequentially to $178 million, pushing first-half sales to $342 million, up 11% year-over-year. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15% to 16%, up from the 13% to 15% range given last quarter, citing visibility into a historically second-half-weighted business. Material handling was the standout. Plug deployed 1,670 GenDrive units in the quarter, more than doubling the 39 units deployed in the second quarter of last year. Service revenue grew 82% year-over-year to $29.8 million with a 27% margin, and two of the company’s largest material handling customers are planning to refresh more than 20,000 GenDrive units over the next three years, a multi-year revenue base already locked in.
The electrolyzer segment added fresh wins too, including a 50 MW order tied to a final investment decision at the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub in Australia, a 30 MW UK project reaching FID, and selection for a 275 MW feed study in Quebec. Management also pointed to European regulation, including Spain’s draft renewable fuels framework, as a potential driver of roughly 10 GW of electrolyzer demand by 2030.
Bear Case: Margins Still Underwater, Cash Still Burning
Despite the progress, the business remains unprofitable across every segment. Gross margin was still negative at roughly -0.9%, and the fuel segment, while improved to -48.8% from -91% a year ago, remains deeply unprofitable. GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.14, weighed down by about $104 million in non-cash mark-to-market charges tied to convertible debt and warrants. The reported 50% year-over-year drop in operating expenses to $62 million leaned heavily on a $39.7 million recovery of previously impaired assets, including a $37 million gain from a customer contract dispute settled in June, meaning the underlying cost base improved less than the headline number implies. Cash usage of $61 million for the quarter, while down 58% sequentially, still represents ongoing burn.
The company’s liquidity plan depends in part on non-dilutive financing, including a July transaction expected to generate about $80 million from asset sales, of which only $47 million had been received as of the call. Positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter remains a target management reiterated rather than a result already delivered.
Hedge Funds And Short Sellers Split On Story
Hedge fund ownership rose to 31 funds holding Plug Power positions, up from 29 the prior quarter, a modest tick toward accumulation. At the same time, short interest sits at 23.71% of float, a level that signals heavy organized skepticism and a meaningful bet against the turnaround narrative. That combination points to a stock where conviction is building on one side even as doubt remains entrenched on the other.
Where The Turnaround Stands Now
Plug Power’s second quarter gave both sides of the debate something to point to. The bulls can note real sequential revenue growth, a material handling business scaling fast, and a raised guidance range backed by regulatory tailwinds in Europe and new electrolyzer wins in Australia and the UK. The bears can note that gross margin is still negative, that a chunk of the operating expense improvement came from a one-time legal settlement, and that the path to positive EBITDA still depends on asset sales that have only partially closed. For the growth story to hold, the second half needs to deliver the 40% sequential jump management is projecting.
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