Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (NASDAQ:PAGP) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So there are opportunities, we’re going to have to wait for the start-up and transition into full capacity that can be reached, and what those flows will impact all those components. But we have a flexible system, we’re touching all parts of that value chain, so if it’s fee-based growth on the gathering systems, we’re excited about that, as the basin tightens again and market opportunities come back, that’s fine for us too, but we’ll be there wherever the opportunities present itself.

Jean Ann Salisbury – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.: Okay. Thank you for that. And just a kind of similar follow-up. Some Bakken contracts began to roll this year on Double H and DAPL going out of the Bakken. Do you anticipate any major change in how much Bakken crude makes its way kind of the westbound route down to Saddlehorn or the Cushing market or other things that could impact Plains’ EBITDA?

Jeremy Goebel: Sure. So there’s a few things that impact it. There are certain gathering systems that feed South and certain that feed into the DAPL system, but outside of those [jump-ball] [ph] barrels, I think it will just be competitive between the groups that head South and the groups that head to the Gulf Coast and Patoka. So we’re their patient, we talked to our customers. Saddlehorn is largely full from DJ Basin, it has some movements from Guernsey, and those opportunities are presenting themselves. And so, we’ll continue to work with shippers to bring them South if it makes sense, but there should be plenty of barrels to go around in that area.

Jean Ann Salisbury – Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.: Great. That’s all for me. Thanks, Jeremy.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Neel Mitra with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Neel Mitra – Bank of America: Hi, good morning. I wanted to touch on the 90% of NGL frac spreads that are hedged for 2024, obviously, frac spreads have trended up lately. I was wondering if you were able to catch some of that with the incremental hedges you put on, and how are you looking at perhaps hedging more than usual and maybe going up to 100% if you’re content with this frac spread environment right now?

Jeremy Goebel: So, Neil, the first thing is really backwards, and until natural gas prices tanked a few weeks ago, it was substantially lower. So this is relatively new and it’s much higher in the front. I think 2025 is $0.56, $0.57 and prompt could be at $0.80. So that backwardation prevents a lot of forward hedging. Our hedges are consistent with what Al said in the mid-60s at roughly 90%. And what you could say is that the hedging profile for us is somewhat consistent with the forward market. So we’re higher hedged in the front and lower hedged in the back end of the year, if that’s helpful.

Neel Mitra – Bank of America: Okay. And then, second question, Jeremy. Maybe just if there’s a way to kind of bridge where the Midland MEH spread is right now for 2025 and where you’re looking to contract and how we should look at it on a contract basis versus a spread basis when you’re signing up these contracts?

Jeremy Goebel: Sure. What I would tell you, Neel, is most of these contracts are for the latter half of 2025 and forward. So we’re not really looking at the 2025 market. We’re looking more what is the constructive long-term rate to ship barrels from Permian to the Gulf Coast. And so that’s between us and the shippers, but we’re having constructive dialogue and we’re less worried about 2024 and 2025 and more what the long-term rate is after the contractual.

Neel Mitra – Bank of America: And when you talk to your counterparties, are these 3- to 5-year contracts typically or are you looking longer?

Jeremy Goebel: Okay, Neel, what I would suggest is we’ll give you an update later in the year and give you more information.

Neel Mitra – Bank of America: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And one moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan Securities. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst: Hey, guys. This is [Robin Redi] [ph] on for Jeremy. For my first one, I just wanted to ask on more color on the 2024 intra-basin and long-haul volumes looks like the 2024 guide is down versus the 4Q 2023 rate. So if you could discuss drivers there and there’s maybe a second part to that question. Do the long-haul shipments include the 50,000 barrel per day shipments that have already been prepaid?

Jeremy Goebel: I’m going to go back and look for your question here. So you said intra-basin volumes on the guide versus long-haul. So I’m looking at Q4 long-haul and intra-basin, and then for next year. I would say there’s probably some noise in that. Q4 had a bunch of flush production. Some of that volume with Wink-to-Webster connecting in it Wink, some volume will go in that direction, which is actually a positive because those are shorter haul tariffs and that leads for integrated movements on our gathering system. So, I’d say this is all consistent with our guidance and constructive for volume growth out of the Delaware Basin. And then the long-haul side, I believe I answered that question earlier, it was just a surge in basin production in the fourth quarter and more normalized for the rest of the year.

Unidentified Analyst: Great. Thanks. And then for the second one, it looks like Plains is approaching the long-term distribution coverage target. So just could you walk through how you guys think about distribution progression from here, maybe versus step up and then flattening out or a more ratable, moderate step up in the future?

Al Swanson: I think our current guidance for this year shows 190% coverage. So we’ve got a bit to go. Our stated approach will be $0.15 a year until we hit 160%, and then DCF growth will drive future increases there. So we haven’t provided guidance for 2025 or 2026 yet. But, yeah, with this 19% or 20% increase we just did, we’re still at 190% coverage.