Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Pitney Bowes Inc. on Value Don’t Lie’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PBI. Pitney Bowes Inc.’s share was trading at $12.00 as of September 3rd. PBI’s trailing and forward P/E were 15.00 and 8.95, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Why Pony AI Inc. (PONY) Surged On Friday?

Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com

Pitney Bowes (PBI) has undergone a dramatic transformation following years of decline and the costly misstep of its Global Ecommerce (GEC) segment, which consumed nearly $740m in losses from 2022-2024. The company exited GEC in 2024, eliminating a major drag on financials and setting the stage for a turnaround.

Today, PBI operates two businesses: SendTech, which is larger but in structural decline, and Presort, its crown jewel. SendTech faces revenue erosion from falling postal volumes, though shipping software and services offer stability. Presort, on the other hand, has delivered steady 4-5% annual revenue growth since 2021, with EBITDA expanding over 20% annually, leveraging USPS partnerships to capture higher revenue per piece despite declining mail volumes. This has made Presort the resilient growth engine of the company.

Financially, the reset is significant. PBI expects 2025 revenue of ~$1.9bn and $330-370m in free cash flow, equating to just 6x P/FCF and a 13% yield, with leverage trending below the 3x target. Activist firm Hestia Capital successfully led a proxy battle and now exerts control, with founder Kurt Wolf assuming the CEO role in May 2025. His compensation is heavily equity-based, with options tied to $12, $14, and $16 share prices, aligning incentives with shareholders. Under his leadership, capital allocation has shifted aggressively, with $90m in buybacks executed in 1H25 and authorization expanded to $400m (~13% of market cap).

The company is also exploring value unlocks from PB Bank, which holds customer deposits and issues loans, potentially via a Harley-Davidson–style transaction. While SendTech’s decline remains a risk, Presort’s stability, strong cash generation, and a management team with “skin in the game” present a compelling inflection story. With shares at $12 and trading at just 7.7x FCF, Pitney Bowes offers a potentially asymmetric setup where disciplined execution could drive substantial upside.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) by Unemployed Value Degen in March 2025, which highlighted Hestia Capital’s activist role, the exit from Global Ecommerce, and management’s roadmap targeting $500m EBITDA by 2025. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately 26% since our coverage as restructuring progress played out. Value Don’t Lie shares a similar view but emphasizes Presort’s growth and capital allocation under new CEO Kurt Wolf.

Pitney Bowes Inc.  is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 34 hedge fund portfolios held PBI at the end of the first quarter which was 34 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of PBI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than PBI and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None.