So we expect to see some additional costs come off. But really, it’s just what I call blocking and tackling. We have — the market hasn’t been overly helpful, so we’ve had to make do with what we can in this environment. And I think, like I said, you operate well and you commercially execute well, you give yourself a chance and I think this is representative of that. So overall, we like the transaction and we like where it’s going and we think it’s getting itself positioned well to go out and compete.
Manav Gupta: Perfect. And my quick follow-up is, you always have a very informed view of the Refining macro. Help us understand within your system what you’re seeing in terms of gasoline, diesel and even jet fuel demand out there?
Brian Mandell: Hi, Manav. It’s Brian. I’ll take that one. Global gasoline demand finished last year about 3% over prior year. We saw about 1% in the U.S. We expect 2024 global gasoline to grow almost 1% and we’re expecting U.S. to remain flat. Gasoline inventories continue at the high end of the five-year average for both U.S. and Europe. We think the majority of the stored gasoline is winter grade, particularly given the current strong octane values. Overall gasoline stocks, we think, should move back to the middle of the five-year range with spring turnarounds as we move toward the summer. On the distillate side, distillate demand finished 2023 about 2% over 2022 and the U.S. was actually down 2%, mostly in the West Coast due to rains and the renewable diesel production and imports.
Latin America we saw up 2%. We expect 2024 global distillate demand to grow about 0.5% and the U.S. 2%, given the U.S.’s stronger economy. And U.S. distillate stocks are about 14% below five-year average and we’d anticipate draws through the spring maintenance season that should take inventories even closer to last year’s levels. And finally, on jet demand, finished last year 17% over prior year, with a total C count recovering to 2019. 2024 global jet demand is expected to grow about 6%, with continued recovery on international travel and we’ve seen cargo flights remain elevated and we think that’ll continue in 2024 as well.
Manav Gupta: Thank you so much, guys.
Mark Lashier: Thanks, Manav.
Operator: The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Doug, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Doug Leggate: Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Gents, I wonder if I could ask you about the EBITDA number for 2023, the $12.7 billion, you mentioned. If you rebase that to mid-cycle, where are we relative to the $14 billion target? It seems to us you’ve only got a year to go, basically, to do a very small amount of incremental cost-cutting. It seems you might have some upside to those numbers. So if you could help us rebase that, that would be real helpful. That’s my first question.
Kevin Mitchell: Yeah. Doug, it’s Kevin. Let me try and fill in the gaps on that one for you. There’s really a couple of items that are probably a bit more significant in terms of the shift from current to what’s 2025 mid-cycle the $14 billion target. So for one, remember, the $14 billion is mid-cycle. The Chemicals business is not at mid-cycle currently and that’s about an incremental $1 billion to get to mid-cycle. And then in a — on a mid-cycle basis, there’s an increment of about $200 million from the mid-cap projects that they have just put into place, most of which took place — happened towards the end of last year and so an incremental billion in Chemicals really driven by the overall environment. Rodeo is not reflected in current and that’s a $700 million mid-cycle impact.
And so that’s a — between those two, you’re at getting close to $2 billion of increment that is still to come. There is some additional on the cost side of things and there’s Midstream at — while we’re close to our mid-cycle on a run rate basis, remember, the $12.7 billion only had our current ownership of DCPs since June of last year. So there’s that incremental step up on it from an adjusted basis on that — in that respect. In addition, we talked about the $600 million of additional commercial contribution to the business. We expect to see that materialize over the next two years and we’re also executing on the Refining projects that Rich has talked about in the past. And so those are the items that are going to get us to that $14 billion 2025 mid-cycle level.
Doug Leggate: That’s very granular and much appreciated. Thanks, Kevin. My follow-up is kind of a — it’s a question on Rodeo, but a different question perhaps than you normally get? We’re trying to understand what the West Coast would look like if we rebased your capture rate, your historical relationship with realized margins versus indicators if Rodeo was not in the system. So I guess it’s kind of a request and a question at the same time, to the extent you can give us the history ex-Rodeo, that would be really helpful. But order of magnitude, was Rodeo loss making for most of the last several years or how would you characterize the EBITDA contribution? I’ll leave it there. Thank you.
Kevin Mitchell: Yeah. Doug, it’s — understand the request and why you would want that and we’ll take that under consideration as we think about how we’re going to report the go-forward Rodeo as a renewable fuels facility, because we do want — we also want to be able to demonstrate that that asset as a renewable fuels facility is generating the kind of financial results that we’ve been talking about and so we’ll take that under consideration in terms of what we show from a recast basis. I think the question on what Rodeo has done in the past, it’s really been a function of the market environment. I mean, it has been challenged over the last few years as what was historically a very strong crude advantage, sort of disappeared with the declining supplies of domestic feedstocks for this facility and having to rely more on imported barrels.
