Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Katja Jancic : And can you just remind us what is the production capacity at Shoal Creek at this point, the max?

Mark Spurbeck: That mine has done more than 1.5 historically. But given where we’re at in the mine geological conditions, we’re comfortable with those levels.

Katja Jancic : Okay. And then just quickly, you — the major project CapEx at $235 million. And I think you mentioned the Centurion is about $150 million. Can you talk a bit about what the rest that is — what are some of the other projects included in that?

Mark Spurbeck: Yes. There’s $150 million for the North Goonyella portion of Centurion. There’s about $50 million for the Wards Well portion of that, assuming we get that closed in the second quarter. There’s also probably $15 million, $20 million at the Wambo Open-Cut joint venture that — that we’re — that’s run by Glencore.

Operator: The next question comes from Nathan Martin of Benchmark.

Nathan Martin : We will start on the seaborne thermal side, guiding to 9 million to 11 million tons of exports there. What’s the approximate production split between the high-quality tons, you get the Newcastle like pricing and then the higher ash, lower-quality product that prices of API to? I know you guys mentioned in your release, the split is roughly even on the unpriced tons, but just specifically wondering on production between Guam and open on this year, I think, Mark, you might have mentioned some positive sequencing along the lines there. And then, how do you guys see going forward, the overall production levels and quality splits of that segment changing over the next several years just given some of the extension projects, I believe you’ve talked about you’re working on?

Mark Spurbeck: I’ll take that first question. And you’re right, there’s some better Newcastle spec product this year on an overall portfolio basis, just given the mine sequencing at the open cut, probably looking somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5 million to 5 million tons of Newcastle spec product, which as you know, our export tons. Go ahead.

Nathan Martin : Great. [indiscernible] I just had any thoughts on how the splits and the production levels in that segment trend over the next couple of years just given some of the projects that looks like you guys are working on?

Mark Spurbeck: So we haven’t given any guidance beyond ’24. I will say that, that outlook is fairly stable for the next several years. there are extension projects that are under study. We haven’t announced anything. But as we get further down the road and complete those studies, we’ll be updating the market.

Nathan Martin : Okay. Got it. Maybe over to the met segment quickly, forecasting a quarter-over-quarter drop there in shipments, I think, to $1.4 million from $2.1 million in the fourth quarter. maybe get a little more color on that expected decline? Is it vessel timing? Is it something else? I know, Mark, you mentioned you’re keeping eye on the lock outage in Demopolis as well. So any additional thoughts there? Maybe are you investigating any transportation alternatives that, that continues? And then on the cost per ton side, I’m assuming for expected shipments driving that range higher for the first quarter versus the full year range. But any thoughts on maybe how you expect both those items segment shipments and cost to trend throughout the year? Any other longwall moves or so to flag? I think you flagged one in the first quarter.

Mark Spurbeck: Yes. I’ll start with the volumes, just address the first quarter. Some of that was covered in my remarks. This is typical, or I should say, we’ve had — we’ve experienced the last couple of years. Really, there’s a longwall move at Metro that’s bringing down some first quarter volumes. And then there’s just typical mine sequencing at the CMJV. It did have an absolutely fantastic fourth quarter. But just where they’re at in the mines in the pit, there will be lower production coming in the first quarter. So it is less than ratable, similar to last year circumstances. It will increase as we go throughout the year to make up that full balance. And then, Jim, do you want to cover the lock issue?

Jim Grech: Yes. Nate, with the lock issue, the timing that we have — that industry has from the Army Core engineers is for the locks to be back in service sometime in mid-May, that’s their current estimate. And so in the interim, we’ve made alternate transportation routes. We’ve got 2 different ones. One is all barge and another one is barge and rail that we’re putting in place to keep the coal moving. We don’t see that impacting our first quarter volumes or our full year volumes for Shoal Creek sales volumes. We do think there may be a dip in the second quarter depending when that lot gets back in place. with the sales tons in the second quarter. But again, it won’t affect the full year sales numbers for Shoal Creek.

Nathan Martin : Very helpful color, guys. And then maybe just one more. Looking at the U.S. thermal business, you flagged how low nat gas prices, high stockpiles are weighing on demand. They did a couple of contract buyouts, I think. So – if I look at PRB in particular, a fantastic year for you guys from that segment, guiding to sales that are maybe only down 1 million or 2 tons, I think, at the midpoint year-over-year. Obviously, you’ve already contracted 85 million tons there as well. So maybe can you talk about how conversations have gone are going with your utility partners out there, whether or not you feel like there could be pressure on that number eventually just given the current market dynamics we’re seeing?