Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Payoneer Global Inc. on Vidette Capital Research’s Substack by Tristan Unger. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on PAYO. Payoneer Global Inc.’s share was trading at $6.65 as of September 5^th. PAYO’s trailing P/E was 26.60 according to Yahoo Finance.

The cross-border payments industry, including P2P, is expected to grow in the mid to upper single digits through 2030, driven by global trade, connectivity, mobile access, emerging markets, and technological innovation. Payoneer focuses on SMBs, marketplaces, and enterprise payouts, with B2B payments, the largest global segment, accounting for roughly 19% of its 2024 revenue ($186M) and showing 37% YOY growth in Q2 2025. SMB marketplace sellers are its largest segment, growing 16% in 2024, while enterprise payouts show stable volume but flat revenue due to declining take rates.

Payoneer’s positioning benefits from a presence in high-growth regions like LATAM and APAC, its Easylink acquisition in China, and a pending Payment Aggregator Cross Border license in India, enhancing integration, efficiency, and market access. The company’s competitive advantages include strong network effects, high barriers to entry, brand credibility, switching costs through an integrated financial stack, and moderate economies of scale.Management, led by CEO John Caplan and CFO Bea Ordonez, is relatively new but experienced, with compensation largely performance-based. Institutional investors hold roughly 35% of shares.

Key risks include reliance on partners and marketplaces, macroeconomic and geopolitical exposure, regulatory complexity, customer concentration (Amazon ~23% of revenues), competition, interest rate sensitivity, operational/technology risks, and emerging technologies like stablecoins. While stablecoins may cannibalize some revenue streams (interest income, FX fees), Payoneer’s “last mile” off-ramp capabilities, partnerships, and value-added services mitigate near- to mid-term threats. Widespread adoption is unlikely before 2030.

Valuation analysis indicates Payoneer is potentially undervalued. Using a DCF framework, fair value is estimated at $8.75–$9 per share versus a current price near $6.65, implying ~25% upside. EV/EBITDA (7.9x) and P/S (2.5x) multiples compare favorably with peers such as PayPal, Wise, Adyen, and dLocal. Overall, Payoneer demonstrates resilient performance, strong network effects, and exposure to high-growth cross-border payments. Near-term uncertainties exist, but long-term fundamentals, growth opportunities, and conservative valuation suggest a compelling tactical investment.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT) by Shareholdersunite Essentials in February 2025, which highlighted strong SaaS growth, AI-enabled product launches, and expanding market opportunities. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately 4.57% since our coverage due to broader market volatility. The thesis still stands as AvePoint continues to deliver ARR growth. Tristan Unger shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Payoneer’s cross-border payments growth and network effects.

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Disclosure: None.