Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Opendoor Technologies Inc. on Fallacy Alarm’s Substack by Rene Bruentrup. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OPEN. Opendoor Technologies Inc.’s share was trading at $5.96 as of September 4^th.

Opendoor (OPEN) represents a high-stakes bet on both the U.S. housing market and its own ability to execute as the only serious iBuyer left after rivals like Zillow and Redfin exited the space. The macro backdrop is compelling: five years of extreme interest rate volatility has paralyzed housing transactions, with millions of homeowners locked into ultralow pandemic-era mortgages. Existing home sales remain near GFC lows despite demographic tailwinds, shrinking household sizes, and millennial demand. This pent-up pressure, combined with sensitivity to falling mortgage rates, positions Opendoor as a levered play on an eventual recovery in housing volumes.

From a micro perspective, the business hinges on pricing accuracy and risk management. After an aggressive post-IPO expansion and a $7bn cash burn, Opendoor cut inventory and stabilized, now selling ~4,000 homes per quarter with contribution profits of ~$15,000 per unit. If scaled successfully to 5% of the U.S. existing home market, the company could generate $2bn after-tax profits, implying a $30bn valuation versus today’s ~$2bn. Recent earnings showed progress, with revenue growth, positive EBITDA, and steady unit economics, though management struck a cautious tone on housing weakness.

That caution, however, clashed with the momentum-driven retail community that has latched onto the stock, culminating in CEO Carrie Wheeler’s resignation after pressure from promoters pushing for a more aggressive narrative. While a meme-driven rerating could lower Opendoor’s cost of capital and aid growth, it also raises risks of distraction and volatility. Ultimately, Opendoor sits at the crossroads of macro recovery potential and execution risk, offering asymmetric upside if both align.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Opendoor Technologies Inc. by LongYield in May 2025, which highlighted its agent partnership model, disciplined spreads, and lean operations to preserve margins. The company’s stock has appreciated about 583% since our coverage as resilience drove confidence. The thesis still stands. Rene Bruentrup shares a similar view but emphasizes macro recovery and transaction leverage.

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Disclosure: None.