On Holding AG (ONON): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on On Holding AG on Jimmy’s Journal’s Substack by Jimmy Investor. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ONON. On Holding AG’s share was trading at $48.91 as of January 12th. ONON’s trailing and forward P/E were 58.52 and 30.49 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

On Holding AG (ONON), a Swiss-born performance and lifestyle footwear brand, has rapidly emerged as one of the fastest-growing premium sportswear companies globally. Founded by Olivier Bernhard, Caspar Coppetti, and David Allemann, the company’s success rests on its proprietary CloudTec® cushioning and Speedboard® propulsion technologies, which combine engineering precision with minimalist design. With 2025 revenue projected at ~$3.3 billion (+29% y/y), On has built its foundation on footwear (95% of sales), but is expanding into apparel and accessories.

Its dual-CEO model; Marc Maurer and Martin Hoffmann, provides operational and strategic balance, while founder control (52% voting power) ensures long-term stewardship and alignment with shareholders. Executive compensation is heavily performance-based, emphasizing sustainable shareholder value through long-term incentive plans tied to TSR and EBITDA growth.

On’s hybrid business model—59% wholesale, 41% direct-to-consumer (DTC)—is steadily shifting toward higher-margin DTC, driving gross margins above 61%. Its disciplined retail distribution, premium positioning, and rapid Asia-Pacific expansion (sales up 85% y/y) reinforce scalability. The company invests 7% of revenue in R&D and 12% in marketing, prioritizing innovation, sustainability, and community-led brand building over traditional advertising.

Partnerships with athletes like Roger Federer and grassroots engagement through the On Athletics Club create deep brand authenticity. Financially, On combines strong growth with efficiency: EBITDA margins near 18%, free cash flow exceeding $140 million in 2025, and a net cash position of over $750 million. With DTC growth, product innovation, and expanding global reach, On stands poised to become a long-term compounder in the premium sportswear landscape.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on On Holding AG (ONON) by Sanjiv in October 2024, which highlighted the company’s rapid international expansion, strong DTC growth, and premium positioning driven by innovation and sustainability. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 2.95% since our coverage as the thesis didn’t fully play out. The thesis still stands as ONON continues to deliver strong growth and brand momentum. Jimmy Investor shares a similar view but emphasizes governance quality, margin expansion, and long-term compounding potential.

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Disclosure: None.