Olin Corporation (OLN): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Olin Corporation on X.com by BlueDuckCap. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OLN. Olin Corporation’s share was trading at $24.85 as of October 9th. OLN’s trailing and forward P/E were 19.62 and 17.99 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Olin Corporation (OLN) presents a compelling cyclical turnaround opportunity, highlighted by recent market activity such as Warren Buffett’s acquisition of OxyChem for approximately $10 billion. OLN owns the largest chlor-alkali producer in the U.S., a segment where the top three players control roughly 70% of the market, and applying Buffett’s valuation framework implies an approximate $6 billion valuation for OLN’s chlor-alkali and vinyl products (CAVP) business. Despite being in a cyclical trough, OLN remains solidly profitable, generating around 9% free cash flow even at depressed earnings levels.

The company carries leverage of roughly 3.5x net debt to trough EBITDA, but faces no near-term liquidity concerns, with no significant debt maturities until 2029, and 2033 bonds trading at a premium yield of 6.2%. Even at trough earnings, OLN maintains a 3% dividend and retains sufficient cash flow to support share repurchases. In addition to its chemical business, OLN owns Winchester, the second-largest ammunition maker in the U.S., serving both civilian and government customers.

This segment, though down to approximately $140 million EBITDA in 2025 from $435 million in 2021, provides strategic exposure to increased civil unrest and potential election-cycle demand, offering significant upside. Recent transactions, including the acquisition of the #2 largest ammo maker last year, imply a $2.5 billion valuation for Winchester alone.

Overall, OLN combines a resilient, cash-generative chemical business with a strategically positioned ammunition segment, providing investors with a unique risk/reward profile anchored by cyclical recovery potential and tangible market comparables, reinforced by Berkshire Hathaway’s investment framework.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) by Necessary-Damage5658 in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s strong positioning amid export controls, regulatory compliance, and market share gains in critical chemical segments. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 39.61% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t fully play out. The thesis still stands as EMN’s compliance-driven approach supports long-term resilience. BlueDuckCap shares a similar perspective but emphasizes OLN’s cyclical turnaround and strategic market transactions.

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Disclosure: None.