Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ:ONB) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Mark G. Sander: And just before I turn it over to Brendon, Ben, I’d just add to what Jim said, a number of those hires that we put on in 2022 were in wealth management. So as we hire a dozen to 15 a quarter, probably half of those were — so we’re more than sufficiently staffed to grow in wealth. Brendon?

Brendon B. Falconer: The only thing left to add on that, Ben, to double-click into mortgage, I think we have to remember, year-over-year, 2022, at least in the early part of the year did include some elevated sale margin. So I would say, we’re at a lower in terms of production, gain on sale margins today, but we were aided in the first half of last year by elevated gain on sale margins. So that will impact year-over-year numbers.

James C. Ryan III: I’d also like to think in the capital markets business, right. I mean it was a difficult time with rates rising very quickly. But those businesses find a way to adjust and offer new products or different products, particularly if there’s a different set of view of rates emerging. So I think there’ll be opportunities to grow that business. Obviously, the fourth quarter is a tough quarter for that business overall.

Benjamin Gerlinger: Got you. And if I can sneak one more in, any appetite for potential repurchase or capital deployment, I know that you guys were historically looking to kind of support the growth, but if growth is slowing down into a recession, just overall thoughts on that.

James C. Ryan III: Yes. I think it’s a little too early to want to jump in that. I think we need to have more clear picture of economic outlook, any issues related to credit out there. I think we need to have a much clearer picture before we want to jump on top of that.

Benjamin Gerlinger: Sounds good. I appreciate the time. I’ll step back in the queue and let Scott ask some boring…

James C. Ryan III: Thanks Ben. I am sure Scott appreciates the time.

Operator: Our next question comes from Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead, Scott.

Scott Siefers: Good morning everybody.

James C. Ryan III: Good morning Scott. Good to hear from you.

Scott Siefers: Thank you, that just seemed gratuitous but I certainly understand — let’s give you, Brendon, everyone’s probably the most exciting topic I can think of. The — so the margin — you talked about margin pressure in the second half. Do you have a sort of thought for order of magnitude and maybe a sense for a lower bound where the margins could settle in the event that things do start to degrade?

Brendon B. Falconer: It’s really hard, Scott, to pinpoint something. So much of this depends on what the Fed does. If the Fed kind of keeps their foot on the gas, we could see maybe even marginal — margin expansion. If they pause for a while and deposits continue to reprice, loan demand remains relatively strong, I think that would be the kind of the worst-case scenario in terms of margin pressure. Just hard to know where those deposit betas fall out. The one thing we continue to talk to ourselves about is whatever that is, I think we have a competitive advantage. Our deposit beta was half the industry last cycle and I expect we can have a significant advantage over the industry in this cycle.

Scott Siefers: Perfect. And I guess just for reference, when we talk about potential degradation in the second half, I know you’re hesitant to offer thoughts beyond the first quarter, but is that 368 the best starting point for the margin or is something in like the low to mid-370s more appropriate, in other words, it goes down in the 1Q due largely to day count, does it go down and stay down or would it bounce back all else equal?