We came across a bullish thesis on Oddity Tech Ltd. on Value & Momentum Portfolio by Denis D.’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ODD. Oddity Tech Ltd.’s share was trading at $29.17 as of February 11th. ODD’s trailing P/E was 16.94 according to Yahoo Finance.
Oddity Tech (ODD) is a digital-first consumer technology company disrupting the traditional beauty and wellness industry through its AI-driven platform. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Israel, the company operates brands such as IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, leveraging data science, machine learning, and computer vision to deliver personalized product matching and reduce return rates.
Through ODDITY LABS, its biotech innovation center, the company uses AI-based molecule discovery to create differentiated formulations, expanding beyond cosmetics into high-value categories like dermatology with the launch of METHODIQ. Unlike legacy players such as L’Oréal that rely on third-party retail distribution, Oddity’s direct-to-consumer model allows it to fully own customer relationships and accumulate proprietary data at scale, creating a defensible technology moat.
Despite consistent execution, the stock has collapsed roughly 54% from its August 2025 peak of $74 to around $33–$34, following a sharp technical breakdown after November. This decline appears disconnected from fundamentals: revenue has grown 24–27% year-over-year, Q3 and Q2 earnings beat estimates by 29% and 9.5%, respectively, international sales are accelerating at 40% year-to-date, gross margins stand at an exceptional 73%, and net margins reach 14%, far exceeding industry averages.
Analysts have cut price targets by 30–40%, yet even revised targets remain materially above current levels, suggesting significant undervaluation. While risks include supplier concentration, AI accuracy dependence, and marketing reliance on social media creators, the company’s cash-generative model and rising earnings revisions point to a sentiment-driven dislocation. At current levels near long-term support, the risk-reward profile appears skewed favorably for long-term investors anticipating a rerating.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD) by Lorenzo Bastianelli in November 2024, which highlighted strong earnings beats, 26% revenue growth, expanding repeat purchases, new brand launches, and short squeeze potential. ODD’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 36.17% since our coverage. Denis D. shares a similar view but emphasizes on valuation compression and sentiment-driven mispricing following the sharp decline.
Oddity Tech Ltd. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 31 hedge fund portfolios held ODD at the end of the third quarter which was 36 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ODD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ODD and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
