Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD): A Bear Case Theory 

We came across a bearish thesis on Oddity Tech Ltd. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by zipper. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ODD. Oddity Tech Ltd.’s share was trading at $43.14 as of December 2nd. ODD’s trailing P/E was 24.17 according to Yahoo Finance.

Oddity Tech Ltd. operates as a consumer tech company that builds digital-first brands for the beauty and wellness industries in the United States and internationally. ODD is one of the most polarizing names in consumer tech, with over 15% short interest and several critical reports countered by backing from notable investors like LVMH and Baillie Gifford.

The company operates a direct-to-consumer cosmetics model anchored by Il Makiage and Spoiled Child, leveraging aggressive marketing and data-driven personalization to achieve rapid growth. ODD’s self-styled identity as an AI and biotech disruptor has resonated with investors, supported by a database of 60 million customers and strong U.S. market penetration.

However, skeptics argue that its strength lies almost entirely in marketing rather than genuine product or R&D innovation. The firm’s product offerings are seen as undifferentiated, with little evidence of technological or ingredient-based superiority, limited in-house R&D, and a reliance on acquisitions like Voyage81 and Revala to sustain its tech narrative. While execution to date has been strong, bears view ODD as a fashion-driven, marketing-dependent company vulnerable to competitive pressure and fickle consumer loyalty. Its high-touch subscription and conversion tactics—though effective—are criticized for being manipulative, and its aggressive internal culture adds organizational risk.

Comparisons with peers like ELF, HIMS, and PDD highlight its lack of price or manufacturing advantage and raise doubts about long-term scalability. Trading at roughly 30x 2026 P/E, ODD’s valuation assumes continued high growth that could falter if brand expansion efforts stall or consumer sentiment shifts. The short thesis rests on the view that Oddity’s marketing-led model is fragile and unsustainable—likely to erode gradually as competition intensifies and novelty fades.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD) by Lorenzo Bastianelli in November 2024, which highlighted strong earnings, brand expansion, and loyal customer growth. The stock has depreciated about 5.60% since our coverage as valuation concerns surfaced. Zipper shares a contrarian view, stressing overreliance on marketing and limited innovation.

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Disclosure: None.