Nuvation Bio Inc. (NUVB): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Nuvation Bio Inc. on wallstreetbets subreddit by asagi_lumina. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NUVB. Nuvation Bio Inc.’s share was trading at $3.2200 as of September 23rd.

Nuvation Bio (NUVB), founded in 2018 by David T. Hung, M.D., is an oncology biotech focused on next-generation kinase inhibitors targeting genetically defined cancers driven by aberrant kinase signaling. The company’s leadership team is heavily weighted toward technical expertise, with 70–80% of staff holding MD or PhD degrees and extensive experience in end-to-end pharmaceutical development.

Dr. Hung’s track record includes founding Medivation, which developed Xtandi and was acquired by Pfizer for $14B, though he also faced setbacks with Axovant’s Alzheimer’s trials—a fact often cited by bears. Financially, NUVB is well-capitalized, maintaining sufficient cash reserves to fund operations for 2–3 years without dilution, with a historical burn rate of $40–50M per quarter, confirmed by management.

NUVB’s pipeline is anchored by Taletrectinib (IBTROZI), an oral ROS1 tyrosine kinase inhibitor FDA-approved in June 2025 for NSCLC and designated as a “Preferred Option” by the NCCN. Early commercial adoption exceeded expectations, generating $4.8M in GAAP revenue in August, above analyst estimates, reflecting both patient starts and channel stocking. Long-term data indicates improved progression-free survival and manageable side effects. The company is actively pursuing head-to-head trials against competitors like Vorasidenib, with potential to capture a ~$6B market.

Conservative revenue modeling for Q3, excluding launch spikes, estimates IBTROZI sales between $1.15M–$3.83M, below analyst projections. Key risks include commercialization execution, competition, and pipeline uncertainty, though these are mitigated by management’s experience, ongoing FDA discussions, and potential international royalties. NUVB also benefits from possible future launches in markets like Japan. Given the early adoption, strong clinical data, and management competence, NUVB presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, with fair value estimates ranging $5–10 and upside potential if adoption and head-to-head trials succeed.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) by MADD-Scientis in March 2025, highlighting its CRISPR gene-editing technology, Casgevy’s commercial potential, strong cash reserves, and diversified pipeline including liver editing and CAR-T therapies. The stock has appreciated approximately 48.30% since coverage. The thesis still stands as CRSP advances its pipeline. asagi_lumina shares a similar perspective but emphasizes Nuvation Bio’s Taletrectinib adoption, technical management, and high-risk, high-reward oncology opportunity.

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Disclosure: None.