Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: And the question comes from the line of Richard Parkes from BNP Paribas Exane. Your line is open Please ask your question.

Richard Parkes: Thanks for taking my questions. I’ve got two questions as well. Firstly, just to push a little bit more on the bottleneck limiting Wegovy supply. I don’t know if you can give any more clarity on whether it’s the API or fill/finish. And I suppose the reason for the question is I’m wondering to what degree you’ve got —

Operator: Excuse me, Richard, your line is open. Please ask your question.

Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen: Richard is online, operator. Yes, we can hear you. Please continue.

Richard Parkes: Yes. Okay. Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I’ll repeat it. I’m not sure what you call where you didn’t — just in terms of the bottleneck limiting Wegovy supply, I just wanted to push you a little bit more on that in terms of whether it’s API or fill/finish, and the reason I’m asking is I wanted to understand what degree you’ve got headroom with Ozempic capacity to maybe offset that limitation if your demand for Ozempic accelerates as a result of the limitation on Wegovy supply. So that’s the first question. Second question is we’ve seen extremely strong data from the SURMOUNT 2 study of tirzepatide in obese diabetics recently, which could make it a very attractive option for that patient population. And I think the placebo-adjusted weight loss was two times what you saw in the Wegovy trial, and maybe that reflects the added benefit of improved glycemic control with tirzepatide in that population.

But I’m wondering if you had a sense of what you think could be achieved in that population with CagriSema. I know you’ve guided to where you think the weight loss will fall out in terms of obese population but not maybe at obese diabetics. Thank you very much.

Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen: Thank you, Richard. I’ll start a bit on the supply side, and then Martin can talk to — probably take the competition. So I’m not going to a lot of details, but I’ll just say that, obviously, we have the API component. We have different devices. We have different filling setup. And of course, we also have the oral formulation. So first of all, that’s a really, really strong setup, and it gives us some flexibility in how we actually build volume that we are not relying on just one presentation. But I’ll just say that we are — we have a growth strategy. And just looking at our numbers, we are growing tremendously. And we have long ago made the choice of expanding that, and we believe we can continuously grow also for the coming period.

But going into very detailed comments about where bottlenecks are, I think that’s getting it too operational for how we guide. So you have to trust us when we say that we’re very confident in our ability to scale and drive growth. And don’t play too much in to, say, short-term demand management because it’s really about building a sustainable experience for the patients, and we are quite confident that we can drive growth that is quite attractive for the coming period also. Martin, on competitiveness with CagriSema?

Martin Lange: Yes. So first of all, I just wanna call out, with semaglutide in Type 2 diabetes into the two, we see approximately 10% weight loss. I also wanna remind you that we are currently rolling a phase 3 trial in both diabetes but also in obesity with 7.2 milligrams of semaglutide. We do actually, based on our modeling, we expect to see in diabetes and approximately 13% to 15% weight loss and in non-diabetes obesity around 20% weight loss. So not too far away from what you just described. And then that comes then with the very attractive safety profile that we know from semaglutide. But specifically on CagriSema, this is probably where we see the step-up or the step-change. Based on what we’ve seen so far in Type 2 diabetes, we would expect an approximate 20% weight loss in and of itself.

So actually, more than what we just described, again, with an attractive safety profile. And in obesity without diabetes, we would expect approximately a 25% weight loss. So from our perspective, semaglutide, maybe with a higher dose is actually already in and of itself an attractive offering. And obviously, with CagriSema, and as you know, we’re currently testing that in phase 3 in both Type 2 diabetes and obesity, we expect a substantial and significant step-up.

Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen: Okay. Thank you, Martin. Yes. I think just underlying what I mentioned before, we believe we can lead in this space, and we have a breadth of a portfolio already visible now, but also more coming that we can hopefully keep teasing out superior profiles here. Next question please.

Operator: Thank you. We will take our next question. One moment, please. And your next question comes from the line of Kerry Holford from Berenberg. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Kerry Holford: Thank you. Two questions, please. Firstly, again, on Wegovy. Can you detail when we can expect to return to market with the formula doses, supply in those lower doses? And then how we should think about quarter-on-quarter growth as you move through the year? And in the context of those constraints, I wonder if you can sort of talk about your decision to continue to launch Wegovy in new ex-U.S. markets. as opposed to prioritize in the U.S. and continuing to tell your position here. And then secondly, on SELECT, and it must be very close to the readout now. And as we head into that catalyst, I wonder if you could remind us your minds what constitutes a hit, what constitutes a miss. I think most of us expect a positive result, and I would be interested to hear in your view what you’ve seen the consequence on the SELECT miss would be for Wegovy and the wide obesity market potential.