Novavax, Inc. (NVAX): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Novavax, Inc. on Ridire Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NVAX. Novavax, Inc.’s share was trading at $6.69 as of December 1st. NVAX’s trailing P/E was 3.33 according to Yahoo Finance.

Novavax stands out as one of the few independent vaccine developers with a validated, scalable alternative to mRNA technology — a recombinant protein platform combined with its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant. Following the COVID-19 era, the company has shifted its focus toward sustainable markets, including combination respiratory vaccines, global booster contracts, and adjuvant licensing. Beneath share price volatility lies a unique industrial foundation: a proven antigen manufacturing process, a globally approved adjuvant that generates royalties, and an FDA- and WHO-qualified supply chain.

Matrix-M, derived from Quillaja saponaria, is already licensed into Oxford/Serum Institute’s malaria vaccine, positioning Novavax as a toll-road technology provider whose platform other vaccine developers must license. Its protein-based platform also offers superior thermostability and storage versus mRNA, enabling low-cost, modular production across COVID, flu, and RSV antigens with minimal retooling. The company’s existing infrastructure, built during the pandemic, now provides optionality through contract manufacturing and adjuvant licensing. In markets skeptical of mRNA safety or seeking diversification, Novavax occupies a durable niche that could support recurring demand.

While regulatory timing, working-capital cycles, and adjuvant scaling remain execution bottlenecks, near-term catalysts include Phase 3 readouts for its combined COVID-flu and RSV vaccines, additional adjuvant partnerships, and cash flow stabilization. As Novavax transitions from a pandemic-era survivor to a steady platform operator, it represents an under-owned, cash-generating vaccine supplier with asymmetric upside. The company effectively offers exposure to a non-mRNA vaccine future — a profitable toll road across the next respiratory cycle.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) by YouAlwaysHaveAChoice in February 2025, which highlighted catalysts around pandemic risk resurgence, institutional accumulation, and bullish technical setups. The company’s stock has since fallen about 25.57%, as the thesis has yet to play out. The thesis still stands as Moderna remains an mRNA leader. Ridire Research shares a similar view but emphasizes Novavax’s differentiated protein-based platform and royalty-driven model.

Novavax, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 24 hedge fund portfolios held NVAX at the end of the second quarter which was 26 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of NVAX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVAX and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.