Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Nick O’Grady: Yes. I mean, from a strategic standpoint, especially if we branched out into multiple different basins that the volume of opportunities coming at us is at an all-time high. And so we’ve got to be able to prosecute these evaluations and do it with conviction. And when you’ve got the volatility that you have from a commodity standpoint, as well as the inflationary pressures that ebb and flow, the fact that we’ve got north of 100 plus operators, all that information needs to be socialized, and it needs to be done quickly, in order for us to — truly high grade and allocate capital appropriately. And so by instituting the AI program, we’re able to take that real-time data and truly harness all the information that we have coming through the and the revenue checks, as well as all the public data and do that with one source of truth.

And so that’s going to be the key to our success, as well, as you know, taking the look backs on the various transactions. I think we did one just recently, in terms of kind of the recent major acquisitions, and we were within about 2% to 3% of original underwriting.

Jim Evans: Yes. The only color I would add to that is, we got 9000 gross wellbores at this point in the business. And the database has always been massive, it’s always been the secret to our success, right? Being in half of every Williston well drilled means you have full bore of knowledge, but the speed of what you can access that data and harness it can take minutes now what would take our engineering team a week to come through in the past.

Scott Hanold: Okay. That’s good to hear. And so, my next question is, just if you can be patient with me for a second because there’s a couple pieces to it. But like, if I think about where natural gas prices are today, and obviously the entrance you all made into Appalachia, the first thing that stands out to me as if I look back, when you guys announced that acquisition, gas prices were about 250. And then they went to 910. And now back to 250. So yearly, they’re kind of back to where it was when you made that acquisition. Two things on it. Do you think that this environment does it make it more ripe for opportunities? A new gas plays from a competitive sort of ability to make an acquisition. And number two, when you do your look back at the Marcellus scale you did. Do you like the returns in economics? I mean, there definitely was a step down in production versus where you originally expected. But do you think the all in returns still justified that move?

Nick O’Grady: Yes. So I mean, to the latter point, Scott, that transaction, even net of all the hedging we did paid out in one year, meaning we got all our money back in one year of owning it, and it has 20 years of inventory on it. So the pace at which it goes, I would say, the pace has been slightly slower than we thought, but at the same time, the cost structure and well performance has been 20% or 30% better than what we underwrote. So net-net, we’ve done a lot better. And so, we’re thrilled to have it is truly a call option. We were also thrilled that we’re not developing it this year that development really is in 2024. And that’s really important to us, because I don’t, while it is economic today, I don’t really think we want to develop our gas properties at $2 gas.