Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

I don’t think we’re afraid to do that either. I don’t know if that answers it specifically, John. But not me, but didn’t get there.

Operator: [Operator Instructions]. Our next question is from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

Neal Dingmann: My question is on the second half and possibly ’24 activity. It sounds like — I forget what slide this is on, but it sounds like based on your prepared remarks and looking at the slide, you all have a number of — a material number of wells in progress, and you have confidence that your TILs will ramp through the remainder of 2024. I’m just wondering it sounds like this is the case, can you give us an idea of just the degree of that and which areas we’ll see the most activity.

Adam Dirlam: Neil, I think as far as kind of the areas that you referenced, I think it’s going to be largely split kind of 50-50. Maybe that gets pushed and fold in your goalposts are kind of 40-60, depending on what’s going on in the Permian versus the Williston and maybe some of the larger working interest pads or units that we have, I guess, drilling down in that regard. I think you’ll see some activity on the Texas, Delaware side as well as the Midland Basin. We’ve also got the majority of our Delaware wells in process are weighted towards Eddy and Lea County. And so to the extent that we see any sort of acceleration there, you could certainly see some additional exposure there. From the Bakken standpoint, it’s the big 4 counties, McKenzie, Mountrail, Dunn and Williams, and that hasn’t changed for years.

Neal Dingmann: Awesome. And then just a follow-up, maybe for you or Nick, I ask you guys this in a while. I just wondered, it seems like now on M&A, you guys continue to now really just a number of different types of deals versus early years when you just take sort of a minimal interest in well. I’m just wondering going forward now, do you all have a preferred structure on M&A? Or is it just a matter of what type of deal you all see?

Nicholas O’Grady: All of the above, Neal. I think we’re economic creatures. I think we want to extract the best. I know it’s sounds corny, but risk-adjusted return, right? So there’s the raw return that obviously, any engineering deck is going to run through, but then you have to adjust that for the specific risks to the assets, so sometimes a required governance. I think Adam talked about this in his comments, and I think this is something that I would want to reiterate to our investors, which is that just because we’ve done several partnerships and sort of buy down structures of late doesn’t mean that we’re not still very active in our traditional non-op markets. In fact, I think that I would say there’s a preference one way or the other.

I’d say that the key things are that our capabilities are a lot larger than they were, and that might be why from a happenstance perspective that you’ve seen that as well as the ebbs and flows of the quality of assets that come to market. I mean, we’ve seen several traditional non-operated assets come to market this year, and they just happen to be pretty poor quality and [indiscernible]. And so I think that it’s going to come, but that’s not going to be the case every day. And so I don’t think there’s a preferred structure. I think we adjust our return thresholds and needs for governance or other things, depending on the concentration and the specific risks of the asset center.

Adam Dirlam: It’s building on that. It’s definitely going to be asset specific, especially when you get into the drilling partnerships and some of the co-buying stuff, right? And so you kind of need to understand what the runway is on a prospective basis, right? You can buy an asset in time, but then what kind of governors do you have in place in order to maintain that alignment. And so that is going to boil down to the social issues and how those discussions are going with a particular operator. We’ve had operators come to us and propose buying an asset and it’s something where they’re going to be renting the asset for a period of time. And so is that the right partner for us, maybe, maybe not, depending on what we can put in those joint operating agreements and what everybody can kind of live with. So it’s as much the social issues when we’re talking about some of these partnerships as it is the assets themselves.

Operator: Our next question is from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

Charles Meade: Nick, Adam and Chad and to the whole NOG crew there. I think I have just one question. And on Slide 10, and first of all, I want to say thank you for giving us this detail about how the actuals are comparing to your acquisition case. But my question is this, how much — it seems to me that most of the delta between your acquisition case and this new — and the new, I guess, completion plan. It seems like we’ve seen some of it in Q2, but most of it is still in front of us. And if that’s the case, is there anything that we can — is there anything that the way that at the end of Q2, your actuals were ahead of the plan? Does that suggest that we’re going to see that gap grow in the back half of ’23?