Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. on Asymmetric Capital’s Substack by Srikanth Thangellamudi. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NOG. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.’s share was trading at $24.82 as of January 29th. NOG’s trailing and forward P/E were 13.64 and 11.14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. NOG has evolved into one of the most structurally advantaged platforms in U.S. energy by embracing a model that looks nothing like a traditional operator. Rather than running rigs or managing day-to-day field operations, the company has built a financial and data-driven engine that thrives precisely because it avoids the operational burdens that have challenged shale producers for more than a decade.

While operators were battling cost inflation, rig shortages, labor constraints, and tightening capital markets, NOG focused on scaling a non-operated acquisition strategy anchored in information, timing, and disciplined capital allocation. Its model turns volatility from a threat into a competitive edge: by analyzing vast datasets across basins, partnering selectively with top operators, and choosing only the most attractive slices of long-life assets, NOG increased both durability and optionality in its portfolio.

The company reinforced this foundation through strategic debt extensions, balance-sheet strengthening, and a steady cadence of selective, high-return M&A, allowing it to expand during periods when operators were forced to retreat. Hedging discipline further insulated cash flows, enabling NOG to compound capital through downturns rather than merely survive them.

The result is a platform whose power grows as the commodity cycle becomes harsher, using timing, data, and flexibility to consistently deploy capital where returns are highest. What emerges is not an unconventional E&P company, but a deep-cycle compounding machine designed to convert volatility into sustainable free cash flow and long-term value creation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) by Six Bravo in December 2024, which highlighted its strategic acreage acquisitions and growing royalty and water income. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 12.50% since our coverage (adjusted for stock split 3 for 1 in December 2025). This is because index-related dynamics and commodity softness weighed on sentiment. The thesis still stands as asset quality remains compelling. Srikanth Thangellamudi shares a similar but emphasizes NOG’s non-operated model.

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Disclosure: None.