Nokia Oyj (NYSE:NOK) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Pekka Lundmark: Okay. So, just as a reminder, we said that AT&T represented last year 5% to 8% of sales in Mobile Network. So, that is important to keep in mind that that 2023 number was significantly in terms of euros or dollars was significantly lower than in 2021 or 2022. So, we had already seen a significant decline in AT&T volumes because of their lower investments. Now we have an existing contract with a five-year contract with AT&T that was published in the beginning of 2021. Negotiations are still ongoing with respect to how we execute on this contract and before we have concluded those negotiations, it is hard to give a clear answer as to the — how the trajectory of the decline will look like. But clearly, we do expect our sales to AT&T to drop this year.

We have to remember, though, that when we, first of all, look at Mobile Networks, irrespective of this contract, we will continue to supply microwave radios and femto products to AT&T. And then outside of mobile networks, we obviously continue to remain a key supplier in both Network Infrastructure and CNS. And those two businesses do not have anything to do with the radio network decision that AT&T made.

David Mulholland: Did you have a follow-up?

Simon Leopold: Yes. And as a follow-up, the forecasting this quarter in terms of the planning, we don’t have a revenue outlook, but there is the operating income outlook and I imagine that, that is what’s really important to folks. But I assume there is an underlying revenue assumption, you would have given it to us, I imagine if you wanted to, and you’ve chosen not to. So maybe help us understand sort of the thinking and the puts and takes on what assumptions you’ve made for full year 2024 revenue and the choice to guide the way you have? Thank you.

Marco Wiren: Yes, absolutely. Thank you. As you see, we changed a little bit how we are guiding for this year, and we decided to give more flavor and information about our assumptions for business growth. And we believe that this will be more helpful for you to get a better picture of each of the businesses, which are then combining the whole company. And for the group level, we guide on the operating profit and free cash flow. And then you can see that we have — on the business group’s assumptions, we have both net sales and also operating margin. And then when it comes to technologies, we have also given you what is the operating profit assumption for this year. And also the seasonality we have given you very – hopefully, good understanding how the year will play out.

And the seasonality will be I would say, more back to normal that we’ve seen in some years ago as well and very heavy second half quarter one is about 23% normally lower than quarter four year before. So I hope that there’s more detailed assumptions in the guidance will give you a better understanding how the company is going and also giving you a better understanding of the different areas and businesses.

Pekka Lundmark: Maybe as a quick follow-up, just to put things in perspective in terms of seasonality. So when we are saying that we are returning to a more normal seasonality, how was this then abnormal in 2023? Three, there were two main reasons for that. In Mobile Networks, there were significant deliveries in India in the first half of the year, which kind of distorted the seasonality. And then the same thing, but for a different reason in NI as well. The beginning of the year was extremely strong because there were catch-up deliveries that had to do with the supply chain shortage and the extremely high orders that operators have placed as a result of increased demand as a result of COVID. So that’s why both NI and MN had unusual seasonality in 2023 and both of those we expect to return back to normal in ’24.

David Mulholland: Thanks, Simon. We’ll take our next question from François Bouvignies from UBS. François, please go ahead.

François Bouvignies: Hi, thank you, very much. Just wanted to ask you on the hyperscale wins and momentum. Pekka, you’ve seen in your remarks and in the release, quite excited about the wins and the network infrastructure momentum. And I wanted to ask you from the switching and routing, do you — are you taking some market share there? Can you elaborate a bit on the hyperscale wins momentum, it’s related to AI? Just to understand a bit better the momentum because when we look at Arista and Cisco, it doesn’t seem they have a lot of momentum. So it’s very specific to you, which would suggest that you are gaining some market share. But then you said a bit earlier that the market share is more on the optical side and it seems to be more market-driven on the other side of routing and fix. So just to elaborate, would be great. That’s my first question. Thank you.

Pekka Lundmark: That’s a highly relevant question. The NI business with hyperscalers has been fairly optical-driven exactly as I commented before. We have existing optical business with them that is looking pretty good. But the main growth potential for us there is really in data center switching. And I cannot disclose the name, but we had a significant order from one of the hyperscalers in Q4. We hope to be able to disclose the name also in not too distant future, but we are not able to do it yet. And this will be driving growth for web scale business in the IP networks side of NI going into 2024. Of course, we have to remember that compared to our competitors, our switching business, data center switching business is small.