NextDecade Corporation (NEXT): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on NextDecade Corporation on Nishant Chandra’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NEXT. NextDecade Corporation’s share was trading at $5.25 as of January 13th. NEXT’s trailing P/E was 40.83 according to Yahoo Finance.

NextDecade (NEXT) is uniquely positioned to capitalize on Europe’s permanent exit from Russian natural gas, a shift driven by Brussels’ push for “energy sovereignty” and expected to fully take effect by the end of 2027.

As Russian pipeline and LNG supplies are phased out, European markets face dramatically higher energy costs, creating a significant arbitrage opportunity for producers like NEXT. The company’s Rio Grande LNG project in South Texas is perfectly timed to start operations just as Russian gas disappears from the continent, providing an immediate foothold in a highly lucrative market. Major energy players TotalEnergies and Exxon have already secured most of the project’s output, with pricing tied directly to European gas hubs, ensuring strong, predictable cash flows.

With a market capitalization of only $500 million today, NEXT is on track to generate $2–3 billion in annual cash flow within five years, highlighting an extraordinary upside potential for investors willing to tolerate volatility. The combination of timing, contractual security, and a market supply-demand imbalance positions NEXT as a potential 5–10x growth story over the coming decade.

While headlines focus on Europe’s energy crisis and the political theater surrounding sanctions on Russia, NEXT is quietly poised to benefit from a structural shift that will see Europe pay significantly higher prices while the company captures much of the margin. For investors, this represents not just exposure to a booming LNG market, but a rare opportunity to participate in a transformational energy play with exceptional risk-reward characteristics.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Golar LNG Limited (GLNG) by Value Science in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s potential upside from commodity-linked tariffs, newbuild MkII vessels, and securing key contracts with YPF. The company’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 2.65% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t fully play out in the short term due to timing and market volatility. Nishant Chandra shares a similar bullish outlook on NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) but emphasizes timing its Rio Grande LNG project to capture Europe’s exit from Russian gas, creating a unique structural growth opportunity.

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Disclosure: None.