Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Nexstar Media Group, Inc. on Asymmetric Edge’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NXST. Nexstar Media Group, Inc.’s share was trading at $210.83 as of January 12th. NXST’s trailing and forward P/E were 13.16 and 8.23 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Nexstar Media Group (NXST), the largest local TV station owner in the U.S., operates at the intersection of broadcasting, political advertising, and evolving digital distribution. Despite being labeled a “traditional” broadcaster, Nexstar has built a resilient, cash-generating model anchored in scale and recurring revenue. The company aggregates local audiences across hundreds of stations, monetizing them through advertising, retransmission fees from pay-TV distributors, and a consistent political advertising windfall every election cycle.

These segments together form a stable backbone that offsets the industry’s structural headwinds from cord-cutting and shifting ad dynamics. Nexstar’s national presence through the CW network and participation in NextGen TV (ATSC 3.0) adds optionality for targeted ads and data-driven services, offering incremental levers for growth.

Financially, the model is robust: in 2024, Nexstar generated about $5.3 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in mid-cycle free cash flow, supported by 35% EBITDA margins—among the highest in U.S. broadcasting. Political ad spending, which exceeded $600 million in 2022, remains a cyclical catalyst, while retransmission and distribution fees—now over half of total revenue—provide recurring stability.

The company’s disciplined capital allocation, with around 70% of free cash flow returned via dividends and buybacks, underscores its shareholder-first approach. With a 4% dividend yield and conservative 3x net leverage, Nexstar balances offense and defense effectively. While risks like ad cyclicality and cord-cutting persist, the company’s scale and negotiating power offer protection. In an era chasing tech multiples, Nexstar stands out as a steady compounding engine—quietly converting airtime into enduring shareholder value.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) by Value Don’t Lie in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong free cash flow generation, disciplined buybacks, and M&A optionality from potential regulatory easing. The company’s stock price has appreciated by 17.94% since our coverage as the thesis played out through consistent capital returns. Asymmetric Edge shares a similar view but emphasizes Nexstar’s recurring revenue strength and political advertising leverage.

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Disclosure: None.