NeuroPace, Inc. (NASDAQ:NPCE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Vik Chopra: Got it. Will keep add the details, I guess. And for my follow-up question, congrats on the cash burn for Q4. I’m just wondering how we should think about that for 2024? Thank you.

Joel Becker: Rebecca, would you like to start out there and then I can add some commentary as well.

Rebecca Kuhn: Sure. So with regard to our cash burn, as Joel mentioned, we reduced it to $3.4 million in the fourth quarter. We’ve shared previously that we do see some fluctuations quarter-to-quarter. But generally we’ve reduced it considerably throughout the year. We’re not going to specifically give you numbers for next year, but you can go through our guidance and come up with a pretty good idea – pretty good idea of expectations. And so I think we’ll leave it at that. Anything you would add, Joel.

Joel Becker: No.

Rebecca Kuhn: Okay. Great.

Joel Becker: Anything further there, Vik?

Operator: Your next question comes from Mike Kratky from Leerink Partners. Your line is now open.

Mike Kratky: Hi everyone. Thanks very much for taking our questions. Another one on your initial revenue guidance for 2024. Can you just provide some additional color on how much of the RNS revenue growth is coming from overall epilepsy market growth for neuromodulation systems versus growth from incremental market share you’re expecting to gain this year?

Joel Becker: Thank you, Mike. That’s a great question. 1 think from what we’ve seen – the way I’ll address that maybe is talk a little bit about pipeline and what we’re seeing from a market dynamics perspective. So we have seen – we’ve discussed previously, and we have seen where we do think that the patient pipeline and the market availability associated with patients in that pipeline has been strengthening. And we feel like it’s a pipeline – if the pipeline isn’t all the way back, it’s mostly all of the way back and we maybe aren’t seeing quite the level of expansion in some of the EMU capacity that we had been seeing pre-pandemic, harken back all the way to those days but those market dynamics. But we do feel like the patient pipeline is solid and has been demonstrating good consistency there.

So we feel like market conditions for patient pipeline have been good. With regard to competitive dynamics, I think we feel like we’re in a very good competitive position. It’s a little bit hard to get into the specifics of the details of the market share calculations because our main competitors don’t specifically break out their epilepsy numbers in a way that we could make an apples-to-apples comparison. But I think with regard to market dynamics we feel like we’re in a strong position as it relates to both clinical data as well as the technology differentiation and feel like we’re in a good position from a competitive dynamic perspective there.

Mike Kratky: Got it. Yes. I appreciate the color there. And then maybe just a separate one, another one on Project CARE. I mean I realize it’s early innings, but what metrics are you going to be paying attention to internally that will help give you a sense of how meaningful this initiative is going to be for driving additional revenue growth over the next few years?

Joel Becker: That’s a great question, Mike. Thank you. And it really gets to the point of the approach that we’re taking from a market development perspective, and that’s really taking that targeted approach to the initiation of activities allows us to evaluate and really learn from how we interact with and the way that we start and scale these centers. I think we have a pretty good idea, but I think we’re also going to learn a lot in scaling up these centers, that will give us some of those leading indicator metrics for the types of things to watch for, everything from what are the targeting criteria that we think have resulted in centers that are particularly responsive pardon the pun. What are the underlying referral networks and patient populations that we should be looking for that translate into a pipeline of patients?

What are some of the indicators from a contracting and economic committee approval that we can look to see what the health of the process looks like. And so really the pilot is intended to allow us to do some of that diligence, confirm or correct some of our targeting assumptions and then develop that kind of a dashboard, just as you say, from a metrics perspective, for which centers have the profile that are the ones that we want to be targeting and spending time with. I would mention of note while it is early innings, one of the things that we have learned and we’ve begun to see is that as some of the early centers have been out, we’ve been engaged with them, and they’ve been going through the contracting process and beginning to go through the training and onboarding process and have begun to identify patients that might be treated well locally.

We’ve also begun to see in a number of these centers in addition to those patients, the identification of patients, the kind of uncovering of patients that were outside of Level 4 centers that are patients who could be referred back for further evaluation in Level 4 centers as well. So we’ve begun to see centers identify patients that can be treated locally as well as uncovered patients that can be referred back in and so both of those things really go to our strategy of increasing access to RNS therapy through the CARE program. So that’s been an interesting and welcome dynamic to watch and see start to take shape in some of those centers there. But hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color on process and metrics for how we’re thinking about approaching these centers and what we hope to take from the initial pilot phase here.

Mike Kratky: Understood. Really appreciate all the color.

Joel Becker: Thanks Mike.

Operator: Your next question comes from Robbie Marcus from JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst: This is actually Lilly [ph] on for Robbie. Thanks for taking the question. Is there anything you can share on how we should be thinking about cadence for 2024? Do you expect seasonality to be similar to what we saw in 2023? And looking at first quarter specifically, I think the Street was at $17.2 million. So is that a fair place to start? Thanks so much.

Joel Becker: Thank you, Ashley. Rebecca, if you maybe want to start out here and I’ll follow on with anything.