Neuronetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STIM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Steve Furlong: Hi Bill. Very timely questions. And so, as I indicated during Adam’s question, we did include a revenue trending slide in our supplemental financial information on our website. And to your point, there are significant segments of our business that are not growing either primarily by design. So we’ve stated the past few years that our intention is to sell roughly 200 NeuroStars a year. So that’s around $16 million that doesn’t grow. Our international business in the Far East has been very steady between $1.8 million and $2 million over the past three years. So again, not a significant growth driver. And then the company still supports our fixed price customers, and that number has been fairly steady, about $7 million a year, but again, also doesn’t grow.

And so, when we look at that in comparison to our Treatment Session growth driver, it really is a drag on the overall consolidated growth rate. Again, our primary focus is on the local consumable customers, which represents about 70% of our installed base, and is really the segment that we can impact the most with BMGP and other marketing programs. Greenbrook again, they were consistent in 2023 with their contribution to revenue in 2022. But again, being flat and our largest customer, again, it was an overall drag on our growth rate. Again, we do expect a contribution and a nice rebound from them in 2024, so that’ll help us. Regarding the increase in NeuroStar, it would be modest. It would not be like we’re going from 200 to 250 in a year. We did 205 systems in 2023.

We may approach 215 or 220 this year. And no, we do not plan on adding any additional ASMs to support that growth.

William Plovanic: Okay, great. And then on the Better Me Guarantee, is it rolled out to all Greenbrook sites at this point? Was that the Phase 1 or are there still other sites that need to be rolled out under their umbrella?

Keith Sullivan : Bill, this is Keith. We rolled it out in Q4 to 26 of the Greenbrook sites. Our plan is to incorporate the balance of them, over 100 sites into the program throughout the year. Like our other customers, they all have to qualify. So we have metrics that we have to measure each Greenbrook store by, as we do with all of our customers. So, our plan is to get the Greenbrook stores, both the Legacy Success and the Greenbrook into the program as quickly as possible. And I think, we are opening up the next 100 on April 8th, and then we’ll open up another 100 on June 3rd. So, we’re excited to have them in the program and as well as our other customers.

William Plovanic: And then last question if I could. Just on the cash flow positive in the fourth quarter of ‘24, would you expect to be cash flow positive every quarter of ‘25, or kind of bouncing back and forth through ‘25? And then if not, when would you expect consistent cash flow positive? Thanks for taking my questions.

Steve Furlong: Thanks Bill. I mean Q1 historically is a significant cash burn quarter for us. We do have the payout of year-end commissions, the corporate bonus plans, and so I do not expect Q1 of ‘25 to be cash flow positive. I would say it’s more likely, I’d say worst case, 2027, possibly 2026, dependent upon the top-end growth rate, but I think there’ll still be some bouncing around in 2025 on a quarterly basis.

Operator: One moment for the next question. The next question comes from Danny Stauder with Citizens JMP. Your line is open.

Danny Stauder: Great, thanks. First question on capital sales. Congrats on the strong quarter, but I was just curious if you’d be willing to comment on how this broke out between new customer ads versus existing users adding another system, given the improvement in utilization. And is it fair to say that there has been more of the latter in quarters past? And just any color there would be helpful. Thanks.

Steve Furlong: Hi Danny. It’s Steve. I don’t think there was a significant shift one way or another into new customer sales versus same-store sales customers. I think this quarter it was about a 50-50 split. And so again, historically, I think it was more of a 60-40. So a slight shift, but nothing significant. And then what was the other part of the question Danny?

Danny Stauder: No, I guess it was just historically, it sounds like it hasn’t changed too much, but just in the past, this trend has gone one way or the other.

Steve Furlong: So, Q4 from a capital sales perspective, it’s when the account managers are really pushing hard across all segments, maximizing in their incentives, and so we do see a slight difference in historical trends in that fourth quarter.

Danny Stauder: Great. And then just one more for me. Some Treatment Sessions, really solid quarter revenues per active site, $13,000 plus was great to see. But how should we think about this in 2024? It sounds like we should assume some existing customer utilization will continue to improve, but any puts and takes as we look out to 2024 in this number. Thank you.

Steve Furlong: Yeah, I would expect that metric to continue to improve. Again, during 2023, at least the early part, our customers across the install base were still only averaging about 2.6 or 2.7 treatments per day. We’ve seen the early returns of the BMGP participants, as well as those who have signed the commitment form, but haven’t necessarily met all five standards. Their patient per day metric is increasing at a very nice rate. And so, Keith mentioned that 20%. So that would get us over three patients per day this year, close to four next year. Again, we’re going to keep pushing until every NeuroStar that’s installed is at its system capacity, which would necessitate additional systems being purchased by our customers. So I do think that 13,200 should continue to grow, at least by that 20% rate, with a slight dilution based on the number of new installed sites.